Jalen Suggs grows offensively for the shorthanded…

Taking on a larger on-ball role

Most young players experience a drop in efficiency when their teams move them into higher usage roles, and it’s no different with Suggs. His usage rate of 25.7 percent is the highest of his career. He is asked more than ever to score and create. According to NBA RAPM, he spends almost twice as much time with the ball in his hands. His on-ball percentage has increased from 17 percent last season to 33 percent this year.

Suggs leads the Magic in touches per game (70.3), mostly from distance. Much of his decline in performance can be attributed to his high-volume 3-point shooting. He made a career-high 8.7 three-pointers per 75 possessions at a rate of 31.4 percent. Suggs has more than doubled his jump rate off the dribble compared to last year and is confident from long range.

Jalen Suggs is aiming for a career-high 8.7 threes per 75, nearly doubling the number of off-dribble jumpers he made last season. His efficiency has dropped, but the confidence and range expansion really opens up more room for his offense pic.twitter.com/L814Mgb5A8

— Ben Pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 16, 2024

Despite the drop in efficiency, Suggs’ shot expansion has opened up his and Orlando’s offense. He masters the dribble when defenders duck under ball screens and fires off the catch from ever-increasing distances. Defenders need to pay more attention to him than they did when he spent most of his time catching and shooting.

Distorting the defense further from the basket has loosened up Suggs’ driving game. He’s doing better than ever this season, driving 8.0 times per game, up from 4.5 last season. Suggs is a frequent pick-and-roll player and works his way downhill, as opposed to more complementary off-ball offenses.

His rim volume is about the same as last season, converting an elite 71.8 percent of his 4.3 rim attempts per 100 possessions. Nearly 75 percent of his shots at the basket come unassisted, making his efficiency more impressive than it might initially seem. He experiments more in the midfield, taking 4.3 shots per 100 possessions in the short midfield.

He makes an ice-cold 33.3 percent of them, but these live game reps will pay dividends down the line. Suggs has started running pick-and-rolls to find his floater, working with the space drop coverages available to him. When smaller defenders check him, he crashes into short jumpers and gets injured.

Jalen Suggs has nearly doubled his frequency in the short midrange compared to last season and is experimenting more with floaters, fadeaways and push shots. The efficiency isn’t great, but the live reps are crucial pic.twitter.com/Z4V4pSlTpZ

— Ben Pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 16, 2024

With Wagner and Banchero out, Suggs also had to carry a much heavier passing load, his assist rate rising from 14.7 percent last season to 21.4 percent this year. Despite this temporary increase, his turnover rates have remained largely the same. He has always shown impressive passing ability, but Suggs is learning how to play as a primary player.

What this means for Suggs And The Magic in the long term

When assessing a young player’s fluctuations in efficiency, we must take his situation into account. Last season, when Suggs played alongside Wagner and Banchero, 21 percent more of Suggs’ field came from assists (66 percent versus 45 percent). The training wheels have fallen off as he pedals faster and faster. He will wobble and shake as he works toward stability.

Hopefully Banchero and Wagner return to the court before the playoffs this season. If that happens, Suggs can go back to a more sustainable shot diet that he has had success with in the past. More open catch-and-shoot threes, offensive closeouts and cuts should increase his efficiency.

He remains a special guard defender and has a career-high block rate (3.1 percent) to anchor Orlando’s elite defense. Most players take a significant step back in their level of effort as offensive responsibility increases, but Suggs’ motor continues to run.

But if the Magic call his number, he’ll be able to lean on the experience he gained as a quarterback in Orlando’s offense. Suggs may never have to carry the lion’s share of the offensive load in high-leverage situations. His ability to increase and decrease usage will make him extremely valuable to championship-caliber teams in the coming years. This is a welcome bright spot in Orlando’s otherwise dismal injury situation this season.