January to March 2025 US temperature forecast

Temperatures in the first three months of 2025 could feature an overall colder northwest and a milder than average south-east contrast, but there may be some month-to-month variability, according to a forecast released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The big picture for the next three months: Above-average temperatures are favored overall across a wide area from the Southern Plains to parts of the Midwest and Northeast from January through March. Parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and lower and middle Mississippi Valleys could experience the most above average.

Compare this to the Northwest, where temperatures prefer to be slightly colder than average.

The forecast for January shows that it will be colder in the northeast but milder in the northwest. Note that the outlook for January in the Northern Plains looks slightly different than the overall January-March picture above. The Northeast in particular is slightly colder than average due to widespread above-average temperatures elsewhere, particularly from the Mountain West to the Mississippi Valley.

However, forecasters at Atmospheric G2 say there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the January forecast.

• A deeper look into January’s uncertainty: The likelihood of colder weather in the Northeast depends on the possibility that the positive phase of the so-called Pacific-North American pattern returns by mid-month. This pattern, which prevailed in the first half of December, is associated with a southward jet stream that is sending arctic air into the eastern states.
• While there are past indications that this pattern could recur for a period of time in January, bringing further flows of cold air eastward, this is no guarantee given conflicting computer model forecasts. Therefore, it is possible that this January forecast will change in a later update this month depending on the atmospheric indicators at that time.

There is a big contrast across the country in February and March. Colder than average temperatures are most likely in the Northwest and Northern Plains, particularly in January. Much of the South is expected to experience well above average temperatures in both months. The Northeast could be significantly warmer than average in February and remain at least slightly above average in March.

• A deeper look into February and March: “We expect a more classic negative Pacific-North American pattern to emerge heading into February/March, and we have not made any significant changes to these forecast maps,” said Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2.
• The negative phase of the pattern mentioned by Crawford tends to cause the jet stream to dip south into the western states, opening the door for colder air. For this reason, temperatures in this region tend to be colder than average at the end of winter and the beginning of spring. In the east, the opposite is the case: the jet stream flows north and allows mild air to prevail, although periodic cold snaps can still occur.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years, having started his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.