Juan Soto, an update on the status of the Cubs and winter meetings open the thread

Juan Soto has signed with the Mets. You already know that, and you can read more reactions in this morning’s Outside The Confines.

You knew he wasn’t coming to the Cubs, right? I think we all knew that or should have known. Here is the only thing I have to say about it. The Cubs have made it pretty clear that they won’t exceed the luxury tax this year. That’s another argument that I don’t want to go into in detail here.

But let’s assume for argument’s sake that the Cubs would have a $300 million payroll. The Mets will likely make $400 million on this signing.

Does it make sense to dedicate one-sixth of your baseball payroll to ONE player? Even a generational talent like Juan Soto?

You need to discuss this.

Now I would like to provide an update on where the Cubs are right now, sent to me by the BCB’s Rush Street Deputy Mayor. The rest of this post will be his. You can use this comments section today as an open thread for any discussion about the Winter Meetings – of course, if the Cubs make any trades, signings or other news, it will be front-page news.

Here is Dep’s analysis.

A quick team building update as we reach the winter meetings

What’s happened since our last salary update and what does it mean for the Cubs’ 2025 player budget?

● Adbert Alzolay, Brennen Davis, Trey Wingenter and Patrick Wisdom were DFA by the Cubs.

● They selected Owen Caissie and Ben Cowles to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft.

● They traded reliever Eli Morgan and catcher Matt Thaiss.

● Nick Madrigal and Mike Tauchman were non-tendered and are now free agents.

● Arb-eligible players Julian Merryweather, Keegan Thompson and Matt Thaiss agreed to contracts for 2025, these contracts are fully guaranteed.

● Arb-eligible players Justin Steele, Isaac Paredes, Nate Pearson and Eli Morgan remain headed for an arbitration hearing, although teams generally negotiate until Jan. 9, the day numbers are exchanged. Any hearings would take place approximately two weeks before the pitchers and catchers report.

● For the final four (actually just Pearson and maybe Morgan in this case), the Cubs can release them in ST for the price of 30 or 45 days of “exit money” unless player and club agree to a contract before the arbitration hearing; in this case these transactions are also fully guaranteed.

● And just when you thought Jed Hoyer was going to sit back and see what “bargains” came his way later in January, he went out and signed SP Matt Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract (with a $27 reciprocal agreement). Option).

● The 40-man roster now numbers 39.

Bottom line, without going through the entire budget… the BCB estimate shows that the Cubs’ CBT spending currently stands at $203,619,048 – which is $37,380,952 below the base luxury tax threshold of $241,000,000 -Dollar lies. (Plus as much of the $5 million trading budget/buffer as you want to spend if you want.)

Current planned roster

OF (5): Happ – PCA – Suzuki – Bellinger – Canario

IF (6): Paredes – Swanson – Hoerner – Busch – Mastrobuoni – Vázquez

C (2): Amaya – Thaiss

SP (5): Imanaga – Taillon – Steele – Boyd – Assad

RP (8): Hodge – Miller – Pearson – Wicks – Morgan – Wesneski – Thompson – Merryweather

(Note: All relievers on this list can ride the shuttle in 2025, except Miller, Thompson and Merryweather.)

40-man position players in minors (4) – Kevin Alcántara, Owen Caissie, Ben Cowles, Matt Mervis

40-man pitchers in the minors (9) – Michael Arias, Ben Brown, Gavin Hollowell, Caleb Kilian, Luke Little, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, Rob Zastryzny

Notable non-roster players in minors – Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, Pablo Aliendo, Cade Horton.

Comments: First, I don’t know where the “reduced budget” rumors are coming from, but aside from not factoring into the luxury tax again in 2025, I would assume the Cubs were previously spending in the region of $230-236 million US dollars will be the first spring game.

The Cubs rumor mill seems to be focused on Cody Bellinger and that a trade would free up nearly $27 million in additional cap space to make some changes to a team that has been just a few wins shy of the playoffs over the past two seasons has stood.

Jed Hoyer doesn’t seem particularly interested in building the projected 90-win team his new manager talked about in his end-of-season press conference. So we’ll see if that becomes a point of friction.

I’m fine with the idea of ​​Matt Boyd, but given the track record, it’s hard to expect 140, 150 innings. I also have some concerns if Craig Counsell is asked to carefully manage the workload of two starting pitchers this time around.

After the Orioles signed Gary Sanchez late Saturday night, the free agent search market has been very busy and is becoming extremely thin, especially for guys who might start ahead of Miguel Amaya or even split the position evenly. Carson Kelly? Elias Diaz? Bueller? Bueller? (Is there still a deal??)

So far I haven’t seen any moves that would significantly push the projected profit total past the 82-84 mark, and at this point I’m not sure where there is a plan to target/involve any decision makers.