Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin and the dangers of premature decisions

The 2025 NBA Draft class is widely considered one of the best in recent years. Cooper Flagg continues to grab headlines at the top, but there is plenty of elite talent for scouts to think about and make predictions about.

However, as with any draft class, it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the emotional high of college basketball’s return. We tend to overreact severely in the first few weeks of action, which inevitably leads to a later course correction. We are all guilty of this. An unexpected prospect emerges out of the gate, we all put him in the top 10, and he ends the season completely off draft boards.

With the 2025 draft, we have a few prime examples of this phenomenon.

Obviously it’s still early, so we can fill the breaks with comprehensive insights and definitive assessments. However, BYU’s Egor Demin was the buzziest non-Cooper-Flagg candidate of the first month. I have already praised him Upside and engine; We all jumped on the bandwagon.

With a surgeon’s knife, he dismantled the downed competition, put his teammates in trouble and showed a more robust scoring repertoire than initially expected. He fits the mold that every NBA team wants – the 1.90 meter tall “point guard” with high processing speed and enormous creativity. The league is lacking huge playmakers, and we all saw stars when Demin had 18 points, 11 assists and four 3s against Central Arkansas.

Well, Demin is finally starting to compete in “real” competitions, and the production has been far less impressive. On Tuesday, he lost 10-0 to Providence and finished the game with six points, two assists and one turnover. In his most recent three games against Ole Miss, NC State and Providence – “real” teams – Demin averaged 10.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists (2.7 turnovers) on .267/.125/.800 splits .

He has better days ahead, and that’s no reason to call it quits on Demin stock, but it’s worth remembering the difference between beating Central Arkansas and facing legitimate ACC and SEC competition. Demin struggled with the sudden increase in his physicality, as you might expect from a 190-pound rookie.

There’s still a lot to love about Demin’s playmaking sense, ball-handling speed and improved shooting skills, but he’ll suffer some growing pains. The defense wasn’t particularly good in these games either. Instead of pushing him into the top three on draft boards, perhaps we should keep Demin in the wait-and-see category, full of promise but not quite put together.

The flip side of that coin is Illinois freshman Kasparas Jakucionis, another European prospect who made the jump to college amid the changing NIL landscape.

Jakucionis is essentially following the opposite trajectory to Demin at the start of the season. He struggled against the softballs at the top of the schedule. In a game against Eastern Illinois, SIU-Edwardsville or Oakland – his first three college basketball games – he recorded no more than four shot attempts. Jakucionis had four points and five turnovers against Oakland, a sobering third appearance at states.

People were ready to jump ship, or at least begin the process of killing off Jakucionis stock. Lo and behold, we have now seen Jakucionis against “real” competition and he is thriving. Some prospects just need a few games to get their feet wet and a few bright lights to wake them up.

In a highly anticipated matchup against John Calipari’s Arkansas team last week, Jakucionis was a stone-cold killer, dropping 23 points, six rebounds and four assists on 5 of 8 shooting (2 of 5 from distance). He was still struggling with turnovers, but Jakucionis found cracks in the Razorbacks’ defense, making it to the charity stripe eight times and making one big shot after another, displaying a mix of size, playmaking flair and shooting touch. that will surely keep the NBA scouts hooked.

There are inevitable similarities between Demin and Jakucionis, who both spent last season at top professional clubs in Spain (Real Madrid and FC Barcelona respectively), and both profile as tall, extremely talented playmakers who thrive on dribbling penetration and ball shielding. Honestly, the key takeaway here is to limit the amount you actually take with you. At this stage, it is more important to accurately determine a prospect’s essence, evaluate his resume before the college exam, and not overreact to a small sample of high-variance games.

Demin won’t be playing against quality competition all season, and Jakucioni’s obviously isn’t that bugger against Oakland. Both are tantalizing prospects with high ceilings and much left to be resolved, despite their intriguing differences from the start.

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This is a loaded design class. There is no “wrong” No. 2 behind Cooper Flagg, who, in this writer’s humble opinion, still deserves the undisputed No. 1 crown. There’s a lot of variety out there – Ace Bailey at ESPN, Egor Demin at The Athletic, Dylan Harper at No Ceilings. It’s a pick-your-poison situation.

However, Harper is likely to be close to the consensus favorite at the moment. There hasn’t been a more consistently impressive newcomer yet. It’s still early, so we can’t crown him yet for the reasons mentioned above. But Harper passes one test after another, dominating every night as the head of Rutgers’ offensive line.

In eight games, Harper averaged 23.8 points, 4.5 points and 4.6 assists with .511/.286/.793 splits. That leads the Big Ten in scoring. Skeptics will point directly to the 3-point numbers, but otherwise Harper has everything under control. He constantly puts the defense under pressure and compensates for limited attacks with a convincing mix of body control, strength and physicality on the way to the trophy.

Harper is on pace to become one of the best rim pressure guards in recent NBA Draft history.

At 6 feet tall and weighing 220 pounds, Harper lives on the edge, scoring efficiently and using his gravity as a slasher to provide for his teammates. Assuming the 3-point numbers are achieved at the next level, there isn’t much stopping Harper from becoming famous. One may be concerned about that 28.6 percent mark, but Harper’s unusual attributes and staggering performance – at 18, even – are hard to deny.

Again, it’s still early, but the Harper hype train is quickly gathering momentum.

Look, it’s way too early to “redraft” the 2024 NBA Draft, so take this with a grain of salt. However, my opinions did not coincide with those of the decision-makers at the top of the actual draft committee. It wasn’t Zacharie Risacher My No. 1 prospect.

Therefore, I feel entitled to a playful overreaction and an imposed course correction on teams that may have made a mistake. Fair warning: My enthusiasm for Jared McCain has reached dangerous levels.

1. Hawks select Duke guard Jared McCain

Trae Young and Jared McCain’s defensive limitations are severe, but their shooting abilities are unmatched. McCain scored by far the most goals compared to his teammates and, as a 19-year-old in Philadelphia, was the scoring leader of all rookies in a supposed “contender.” McCain did his best to keep Philadelphia afloat. He’s a top-notch shooter, but more than that, he’s an excellent processor, always one step ahead of the defense when it comes to passing open teammates or moving them into the open. This was a weak design. McCain’s exceptional shooting, high IQ and effortless charm are hard to deny.

2. Wizards select Perth center Alex Sarr

Honestly, the Wizards are probably thrilled with their pick. For Alex Sarr, the offense is still a work in progress, but he welcomes the freedom that comes with rebuilding Washington. The defensive performances are truly astonishing for a 19-year-old. At 6-foot-1, Sarr’s mobility and activity level is virtually unmatched in the league. He will one day anchor a special Wizards defense.

3. Rockets select Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard

I don’t think the Rockets will change course either. It’s been difficult for Reed Sheppard to carve out minutes in a deep Houston backfield, but that’s more a testament to Houston’s strength than an indictment of Sheppard, who dominated Summer League and preseason minutes as a freshman at Kentucky, shooting over 50 percent from the field the distance shot.

4. Spurs select G League Ignite winger Ron Holland

Ron Holland was my personal #1 and my stock isn’t moving. It was, as expected, a rocky start in Detroit, but Holland’s 6-foot-7 frame, athleticism and defensive play have made their mark on the Pistons’ second unit. He’s responsible for a few flash plays every night and the scoring will eventually click, especially once the Pistons figure out which members of this core are important.

5. Pistons select UConn center Donovan Clingan

Donovan Clingan has made the most of sparse minutes in Portland. It’s clear he’s the Blazers’ center of the future, so the 20-year-old is just waiting until Deandre Ayton is traded or benched. Clingan’s massive 7-foot-3 size simply smothers the defense’s paint. He’s one of the sharpest rim protectors the league has seen in a long time, and his useful mix of screen-setting and play-finishing would fit in great alongside Cade Cunningham, with all due respect to Jalen Duren.