Key to the game: LSU faces Florida State in the SEC/ACC challenge

With a handful of high-profile games under its belt, LSU now hosts Florida State in the SEC/ACC Challenge in the PMAC on Tuesday evening at 8 p.m. McMahon’s team already has a solid track record with wins over Kansas State and UCF and will get another chance to add to that list tonight.

Let’s dive into the matchup with my keys to the game, numbers to know, and more.

1. Dealing with Florida State’s defensive pressure

The Seminoles rank third in the country in defensive turnover percentage, fourth in steal percentage and sixth in block percentage. According to Kenpom, they are the third-ranked team in the country and have a clear identity in how they approach games. They want to create chaos, unsettle opposing guards and protect the rim at a high level.

“It’s a great opportunity for us tomorrow night. Florida State is elite defensively. They really guard you and are very disruptive on that end of the floor. They have great size and length in every position. They have interchangeable parts and the ability to switch and cause a lot of havoc, and if you beat them off the dribble, their rim protection is one of the best in the country, so you have to make good decisions there.”

It will be a big challenge for the Tigers’ guards as LSU ranks 263rd in turnover percentage this year, which would play right into Florida State’s hands and trigger their fast break opportunities. Jordan Sears In particular, it’s someone I’m looking out for because he’s going to have a lot of length to defend all game and he’s going to have to be smart while creating for himself and others. In LSU’s top three games this year, Sears committed 13 turnovers Cam Carter has nine.

It should be noted that the Seminoles have only played one team in the Kenpom (Florida) top 100 and six of their seven wins have come against teams outside the top 150, so the defensive numbers will be put to the test tonight against the Tigers become.

This has been a key theme for me all year, but it rarely comes up. I understand the importance of using Reed as a roller and trying to not just isolate him, but he’s just not getting enough shot attempts for his efficiency right now. Reed ranks in the top 150 in the country and top 70 in free throw percentage, but is well behind Sears, Carter and Miller in usage rate.

Reed has just 18 post-ups this year, according to Synergy, and has scored 24 points on those post-ups, putting him in the 94th percentile. He’s a good screener, but in 12 possessions as a rollman, Reed has scored just 11 points, which puts him in the 39th percentile according to Synergy.

In a game against FSU where I expect the guards to struggle a bit with their aggressiveness, why not give it to Reed and force the defense to adjust or double down and play him? They need another initiator on offense and it is clear that it has to be Reed.

3. Limit transition

Florida State ranks 11th nationally in offensive tempo, and that’s due in large part to the steals and blocks they use to create fast break opportunities. LSU is prone to turning the ball over and ranks 308th nationally in opponent steal rate.

It’s especially important to slow down FSU because their attack is very average in the half court. The Seminoles are not an elite offensive rebounding team (191st), not an elite 3-point shooting team (195th) and rely on their defense to create offense. LSU should be the second-best defense they have played this year, so the hope is that the Tigers’ experience and discipline will slow them down. The Tigers have struggled to recover defensively at times this year, which is another key to this game given Florida State’s size.

Jamir Watkins is a high-stakes winger who has scored in double figures in all but one game this year, scoring 19 points on 7 of 15 shooting at Florida. He also ranks in the top 40 in the country in free throw percentage and is second in fouls drawn, presenting a challenge for LSU’s wingers. Expect Dji Bailey to start the game with him.

4. Start strong

Playing at home this early in the season against an ACC opponent in a top-60 matchup has to create a different level of play than what we’ve seen in the first half the last few weeks. The Tigers have trailed at halftime in four of their last six games, with three of those coming against teams outside the top 230 in Kenpom. Was this just blurry focus or is this a real problem in big games?

I think the offenses are struggling early in this game, mostly due to limited shooting options on both sides, but it comes down to free throws and transition and that could favor LSU at home, but we’ll have to see what Tigers version of that we get it on Tuesday evening.

It’s gearing up for a great game that could be another win for LSU as Matt McMahon’s team continues to build a record for the NCAA Tournament early in the year.