KeyBanc Remains Bearish on Apple Stock as Latest Data “Looks Slightly Negative” From Investing.com

Investing.com – Analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated their underweight stance on Apple (NASDAQ:) in a research note, citing “moderately negative” hardware trends and ongoing concerns about valuation and revenue growth expectations.

KeyBanc said its proprietary Key First Look Data (KFLD) showed a 6% month-on-month decline in indexed spending in November, well below the three-year average of a 3% increase.

Annual growth is expected to have slowed to 6% in November, compared to 7% in October.

“We have seen no evidence that iPhone 16 is driving meaningful changes in upgrade activity,” analysts noted, citing continued sluggishness despite new product launches.

KeyBanc also noted that Apple’s F1Q25 forecast suggests low-to-mid-single-digit overall revenue growth, with hardware growth forecast at around 1% (+/- 3%).

While iPhone estimates remain at +2.2% year-over-year, Mac (+1.8%), iPad (+2.4%) and wearables (-2.6%) forecasts fall short of consensus.

Analysts expressed concerns about Apple’s premium valuation despite the company’s slower growth compared to its peers.

AAPL trades at about 22.4 times our 2026 adjusted EBITDA, compared to the peer average of about 20.0 times, they wrote, saying the stock “appears expensive.”

In addition, KeyBanc pointed to risks from possible cannibalization from the upcoming iPhone SE and the lack of a historical precedent for Apple, which was able to achieve sales growth across all product lines and regions.

Although Apple shares have continued to rise, they have slightly underperformed the Nasdaq since KeyBanc’s October downgrade. Analysts argue that consensus revenue estimates remain too high and suggest that investors should reassess their expectations given weakening hardware trends and competitive pressures.

“We continue to believe UW (Underweight) AAPL is the best fit: 1) still significant potential for a reduction in revenue growth estimates and 2) AAPL’s premium valuation despite its lower growth profile relative to peers,” conclude she.