Lennon: Soto’s free agent scenario couldn’t have gone better

Since the MLB Winter Meetings are officially scheduled to begin on Monday in Dallas, it seems somewhat relevant to point out that they happen to fall on December 9th.

And why is this date significant?

Well, it was exactly a year ago when Shohei Ohtani announced his record signing with the Dodgers, on his Instagram account of course, followed by an email from his enthusiastic agent Nez Balelo, who was more than happy to share the contract’s term : 10 years, $700 million.

“This is a unique, historic contract,” Balelo said in a statement that day, “for a unique, historic player.”

Exactly one year later, this award could expire. Juan Soto – the “generational talent” – appears to be on the verge of getting a forever contract, with the long-awaited, highly speculated decision to be announced at these meetings, if not in the hours before everyone arrives in Dallas.

How did Soto put himself in a position to potentially dethrone Ohtani so soon? A few factors play a role here.

While Ohtani’s $700 million deal was a stunning surprise at the time, you could see the Dodgers’ reasoning behind it considering they were getting both a Cy Young Award-caliber pitcher and a DH in one player had purchased in MVP quality. Pay out $35 million each; There’s your annual salary of $70 million.

Something else made it much easier for the Dodgers to hit that number: the massive shifts, as Ohtani’s staggering off-field endorsement earnings allowed him to draw just $2 million in salary over the 10-year contract term. Plus, it helped LA along the way to avoid the huge luxury tax hit.

For Soto, though, it’s all about the big market forces in baseball. Unlike Ohtani, who really only had eyes for the Dodgers, Soto’s free agency was the perfect storm. He was reportedly down to four teams Saturday night — with the Dodgers on the sidelines in fifth — and agent Scott Boras couldn’t have planned the final game better himself.

Soto came off a stellar audition with the Yankees, who got to see firsthand what he’s capable of as he was a key reason they made it to the World Series for the first time since 2009. Hal Steinbrenner was so enamored with Soto that he attempted to engage in midseason extension talks – a rarity for the Yankees – but was rebuffed in those efforts.

That preference only grew in October, and Steinbrenner made sure to play a big role in the team’s recruiting trip to the West Coast in November. And as if that Bronx flavor didn’t put enough pressure on Steinbrenner’s checkbook, Boras was fortunate to have the perfect crosstown contrast in Mets owner Steve Cohen, aka the sport’s richest owner, who had his own memorable playoff run. run and was determined to change the balance of power in New York baseball.

It’s not often that one new addition can turn things around, but Soto is exactly that player for the Mets. Not only would they acquire the top talent that Cohen has craved since purchasing the franchise, but they would also have the added benefit of prying him away from the Yankees. That’s a lot for the money. And if you were Cohen, a Picasso collector worth $21 billion, would you ever be turned away from the opportunity?

“It’s a great business investment,” Boras said last month of the 26-year-old Soto. “Apart from the budgets and the way they look at things, you can see that they understand the added value in getting the opportunity to have a player of this age, with these skills, with this character, with this experience “Winning with so much of a performance gap is worth it.”

Boras, usually prone to exaggeration, actually undercut Soto in this particular case because he left out the Yankees-Mets dynamic, an agent’s dream for every client. But things actually got better for Soto’s camp, as the Red Sox and Blue Jays also emerged as serious suitors and appeared to stick around as offers reportedly topped $600 million and moved into the $700 mark on what was believed to be the final bidding weekend million dollar mark.

Here, too, Boras could not have imagined a more favorable scenario. The cash-rich Red Sox are desperate to re-establish themselves as contenders in their own backyard after a recent period of austerity that drew the ire of the Boston fan base. And who better than the Mets to scare Steinbrenner & Co. than the Yankees’ old rival? The Red Sox share the same division and play the Yankees 13 times per season.

The Mets are an existential threat to the Yankees’ supremacy in New York. If the Red Sox acquire Soto, they will pose a real obstacle to the pursuit of the AL East title and another trip to the World Series.

As for the Blue Jays, despite the financial power of Rogers Communications, the ownership group played by Ohtani a year ago, they don’t raise the fear level of the other three. That’s not to say the Blue Jays couldn’t throw enough money at Soto to lure him north of the border. On Saturday night, no one knew exactly which way he was leaning, a stance he has maintained since the World Series finale.

As one person with (limited) knowledge of this weekend’s bidding war admitted, “It’s being kept very hush-hush.”

Whatever the case, Soto seems determined to surpass Ohtani’s $700 million mark and perhaps even his deferral-adjusted AAV, which is estimated at $46 million based on the way his dollars move by the 2043 Dodgers will be paid out.

Soto’s free agency seemed to have lasted two decades, but now appears to be close to resolution.

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a Baseball Hall of Fame voter and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.