Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds and Tips

It was a disappointing defensive performance from Miami on Saturday, allowing 120 points in a 10-point loss to the Hawks. What was even more concerning was the fact that Atlanta recorded 34 assists in that game, Miami’s defense seemed stagnant, and they are starting to feel the absence of Jimmy Butler. He will also miss Sunday’s game in Houston for fitness reasons. Miami travels to Houston as 7.5-point underdogs, which sounds like a lot against a team it has beaten eight straight times. Miami also has a significant advantage when it comes to covering the spread, having done so 12 times in the last 16 meetings.

Houston also comes into this game after a loss. The Rockets are in turmoil after blowing a 16-point lead against Minnesota on Friday. It was only their fourth home loss in 15 games this season, they had a solid 10-5 ATS in those 15 games. Catching Miami on the second night of a meeting might be just enough to erase the poor record they have head to head. Unlike Atlanta, Houston doesn’t play at a fast pace, they rely primarily on their defense to win games. Opponents attempt just 35% of their attempts from downtown, which ranks seventh best in the NBA.

A low-scoring game would benefit Miami here; it can lose by 7 points and still cover the spread. The away loss to Atlanta will be a wake up call, this was a favorable game for them throughout the year and I think they should have enough to keep this game close. I’ll take Miami.

Heat vs. Rockets Prediction: Miami +7.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable under this number.

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