Miami vs. Iowa State score prediction by an expert football model

Miami and Iowa State face off Saturday in the 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl in an ACC vs. Big 12 battle of former playoff contenders. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects results and picks winners.

Miami started the year 9-0 and appeared to be a clear contender for the College Football Playoff, but lost two of its last three games, including the regular season finale against Syracuse, which prevented it from competing for the ACC Championship play.

It appears Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward will play in the game, a huge advantage since he helped lead the offense to its historic passing performance last season.

Iowa State started the season a perfect 7-0 and, despite two costly losses late in the year, was still playing for the Big 12 title, where it lost to eventual champion Arizona State.

The Cyclones play solid pass defense and fielded their first pair of 1,000-yard receivers for the first time in program history while also winning 10 games.

What do you think will happen when the Hurricanes and Cyclones meet in the postseason?

To do this, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Miami and Iowa State will fare in college football’s Pop Tarts Bowl game.

So far, the models have more confidence in the Hurricanes than the Cyclones.

SP+ predicts Miami will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 35-23, winning the game by an expected margin of 12.8 points in the contest.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong 79 percent chance of winning over the Cyclones.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a win ratio of 52.1.

–

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite against Iowa State, according to updated lines posted for the matchup on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel gives the total score for the game at 60.5 points (over -110, under -110).

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -176 for Miami and +146 for Iowa State.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

That puts you among the majority of bettors, most of whom are expecting the Hurricanes to defeat the Cyclones, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Miami receives 61 percent of the bets to cover the narrow point spread.

The other 39 percent of bets assume that Iowa State will either win the game outright in an upset or limit the game to a field goal or less in a loss.

–

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including recent results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

–

When: Sat, December 28th
Where: Orlando, Florida.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC Network

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection