Nationals win draft lottery – MLB trade rumors

Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon during the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They are followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just over a 10% chance of securing first place, the fourth-highest odds.

Here is the order of the first round:

1. Nationals
2. angel
3. Sailors
4. Rockies
5. Cardinals
6. Pirates
7. Marlins
8. Blue Jays
9. Redness
10. White Sox
11. athletics
12. ranger
13. Giants
14. Rays
15. Red Sox
16. Gemini
17. Boy
18. Diamondbacks
19. Astros
20. Brave
21. Orioles
22. brewer
23. Royals
24. tiger
25. Padres
26. Phillies
27. Mets
28. Guardian
29. Yankees
30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s effort to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the recent collective bargaining agreement established a lottery to determine the top six overall players. A team’s chances of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst record, even though the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% each) of landing the top pick.

All non-playoff teams supposedly have a chance of winning the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that does not receive revenue sharing from finishing in the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can win the lottery more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue share recipient and ranked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and 2024.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were limited to 11th. This is despite the fact that the White Sox had their worst season of all time and would have been one of the three teams most likely to take first place. This increased the odds for each team, but was particularly beneficial for Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) as their chances of getting the No. 1 seed increased to over 20%. Unfortunately for these teams, the balls weren’t bouncing their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% chance.

Seattle and St. Louis emerge as big winners. The Mariners posted a record of 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that failed to make the postseason. However, they were lucky enough to finish in the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing result for Miami, who received no lottery pick at all despite having the best chance with the first pick. The only glimmer of hope is that they remain eligible for lottery selection through at least 2026 and 2027 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that have exceeded the third tier of the luxury penalty will have their top picks lowered by 10 spots unless that pick finishes in the top six. (In this case, the club’s second-highest pick would be moved back.) MLB has not yet officially announced the 2024 tax dates, but the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are believed to be the only clubs that meet the $277 million threshold US dollars have exceeded selection to be dropped. All of these teams made the playoffs and were not eligible for the lottery anyway.

The lottery only comes into play in the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, the selection order is determined in the reverse order of the previous season’s rankings, except for the balancing and competitive balance selection.

Baseball America released its latest top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, it’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette was at the top of BA’s list, although there will obviously be a lot of changes on the board when the amateur baseball season begins next spring.