Navarrete vs. Valdez 2 – What the stats tell us about the fight

Emanuel Navarrete puts his WBO junior lightweight world title on the line in a rematch against Oscar Valdez on Saturday at the Footprint Center in Phoenix (ESPN/ESPN+, 10:30 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN+ at 5:30 p.m. ET).

Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KO), of Mexico City, defeated Valdez by unanimous decision in their first fight in August 2023. Navarrete threw 1,038 punches and landed 216 in that fight, but the final three rounds were the champion’s most impressive. Navarrete landed 32 punches in round 10, 23 in round 11 and 34 – all powerful punches – in round 12. He expects another tough fight on Saturday.

“I work hard because I know I have to push Valdez to his limits,” Navarrete said during a Nov. 27 practice session. “The second half of the fight will be less about technique and more about physical training and who is the best prepared to withstand the punches.”

Valdez (32-2, 24 KO), of Nogales, Mexico, bounced back from that loss with a seventh-round TKO victory over Liam Wilson in March. Valdez landed 44.5% of his total punches and an incredible 55.8% of his power punches against Wilson. The fight was tough for the first four rounds, but the next three were all Valdez’s. He landed 69 to 30 power punches on Wilson before referee Mark Nelson stopped the fight.

“I know what to expect from Navarrete,” Valdez said. “I know what I have to train for. I trained hard and smart for this fight. In the first fight I made several mistakes. My biggest mistake was trying to knock out my opponent. “I always want to give the fans what they pay for.” But I focused on the knockout instead of sticking to my game plan. I work smarter, fight smarter and get sparring partners who better imitate his style.

This is an important fight for both fighters. Navarrete’s last win was against Valdez 16 months ago. He has since had a majority draw against Robson Conceicao in November 2023 and a loss against Denys Berinchyk last May. Valdez, on the other hand, wants to maintain his momentum and avenge the loss to Navarrete to become a two-time world champion. Valdez’s only other loss came against Shakur Stevenson in 2022.

Let’s take a look at the title fight by the numbers. Information from ESPN Research and CompuBox was used in this report.

-275: The odds of Navarrete beating Valdez in the rematch (according to ESPN BET).

483: Days have passed since Navarrete’s last win – a unanimous decision over Valdez on August 12, 2023 – before he faces Valdez in a rematch on Saturday.

19.8: In his last 15 fights, Navarrete landed 67.2 punches per round (29.5%). Navarrete scored 13.8 of 58.5 points (23.6%) in his last five fights.

15.9: Navarrete has landed 43.8 power punches in his last 15 fights (36.3%). Opponents landed nine powerful punches on Navarrete, 31 of which were thrown (28.9%).

Navarrete and Valdez are known for their body punches, but for both fighters it’s more about quality than quantity. Only 22.2% of Navarrete’s punches hit the body, compared to 20.7% for Valdez. Both totals are below the junior lightweight class average of 29.5%.

In his last 15 fights, Valdez has been very efficient. Although he only lands 15.3 of 49.8 punches thrown per round, his average of 30.7% is higher than the junior lightweight class average of 28.1%.

4.6: Of 22.2 jabs thrown, Valdez landed, an average of 20.7%. In contrast, Valdez lands 10.7 of 27.7 power punches per round, an average of 38.6%.

26.7%: Percentage of power punches landed by Valdez by his opponents, 10th lowest among champions and title contenders.

34: Navarrete landed powerful punches in round 12 in his first fight against Valdez.

Navarrete’s punching rate was key in his first fight with Valdez. Navarrete landed 18 of 87 punches per round while Valdez scored 12 of 36. Navarrete’s 216 punches landed were the most by a Valdez opponent. In rounds 10 to 12, Navarrete defeated Valdez 89:46.

3: Number of title defenses Navarrete aims to achieve with a win over Valdez in the rematch.

12: Navarrete’s victories in title fights – seven by stoppage – as well as one loss and one draw. All of these fights have been taking place since 2018.

1: Navarretes loses. In May, Navarrete moved up in weight and lost a split decision to Denys Berinchyk, who was fighting for the WBO lightweight world title.

128: In total, Navarrete landed 612 punches thrown (21%) in his loss to Berinchyk. Navarrete landed only 98 of 423 power punches (16%) in this fight.

Valdez, No. 5 in ESPN’s junior lightweight rankings, hopes to become a two-time junior lightweight champion. In his last fight in March, he scored a seventh-round TKO victory over Liam Wilson, setting up a rematch with Navarrete.

11: Valdez’s victories in title fights – six by stoppage – and two defeats.

2: Divisions Valdez has won titles in – Featherweight and Junior Lightweight.

9: Valdez’s opponents land 26.7% of their power punches against Valdez, the ninth-lowest percentage among active fighters.