NFC West: Rams put pressure on Seahawks, but don’t forget the Cardinals

The answer to the question “Who will win the NFC West?” is as simple as it is complicated: The team that wins the remaining games wins the NFC West.

In fact, the Cardinals will win the division if they win the rest of their games and the Seahawks are not 4-0 or 3-1 but finish ahead of the Rams. If that seems counterintuitive, the Cardinals will be heavily favored in three of their four remaining games, with one exception being the Rams’ game in Week 17.

So essentially the Rams will play playoff games for the remainder of the season:

• Week 16, Jets (A Must Watch)
• Week 17, Cardinals (Must Watch)
• Week 18, Seahawks (Must Watch)

The team that doesn’t slip up in the next 4 weeks will be the team that will win the division.

This seems obvious, but the NFC West is actually a rare 3-way race where all three teams – the 8-6 Rams, 8-5 Seahawks and even the 6-7 Cardinals – can win the division if they win The rest win their games. And as ridiculous as that may sound for an Arizona team that is currently essentially THREE games behind Seattle in the standings (they were defeated by the Seahawks, so it’s a three-game margin), the Cardinals might actually be taking the most forgiving route have the department to win.

Because if the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals all finish 10-7, then Arizona most likely wins the NFC West.

But if the Rams win, they will win the NFC West.

And if the Seahawks win, they will win the NFC West.

This is how it works:

How the Rams Win the NFC West (Looking Better Than Ever)

By beating the 49ers on Thursday night, the Rams really put pressure on Seattle to not slip up over the next three weeks. This is a big challenge for the Seahawks as they face their toughest stretch of the season: Packers and Vikings.

Then Seattle has to travel to Chicago in late December and play the Bears on three days of rest.

The Rams now have 10 days to prepare for the 3-10 Jets, and if LA wins this game, they’ll have a guaranteed chance to get past the Seahawks in Week 18:

• The Rams already have a win over the Seahawks
• As long as the Rams start Week 18 with a game against Seattle, they can secure a direct lead over the Seahawks in every duel against the Seahawks

So it’s pretty simple: If the Seahawks lose to the Packers this Sunday night and the Rams beat the Jets in Week 16, they are guaranteed a title shot if they play the Seahawks in Week 18, no matter what happens in Week 17 the Cardinals play their next two games, then Week 17 will be just as important as Week 18.

If the Rams win their final three games, they will win the NFC West with a record of 11-6. Period. The best the Seahawks could do would be 11-6 and two losses to the Rams.

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

How the Seahawks Win the NFC West (It Looks Worse)

Basically, the Seahawks can’t make a single mistake in the next three weeks, otherwise they’ll have to beat the Rams in Week 18 at best to get into the playoffs. Historically – and this goes back to the Mike Holmgren-Mike Martz days – Seattle is terrible against the Rams when the Rams are good. It never mattered how good the Seahawks were back then: Whenever the Rams were good, they beat the Seahawks and especially in playoff games.

If the Seahawks don’t get into Week 18 more If the Rams have more than a one-game lead, they will have to capitalize on their Achilles’ heel to win the division. (Unless the Cardinals are still alive, which we’ll get to next.)

But being perfect in the next three games will be a challenge for Seattle:

• The Seahawks play the 9-4 Packers and the 11-2 Vikings
• The Seahawks have only beaten one team with a winning record: the Broncos in Week 1, when Bo Nix made his NFL debut
• The Seahawks would now have to beat two teams that are better than any team they have beaten all season

If the Seahawks go 2-1 in their next three games, they will go 10-6. As long as the Rams go 9-7, they have earned the right to play for the title. (That means Rams-Seahawks will most likely be the Sunday Night Football game in Week 18. The only other contender, Lions-Vikings, would require the Vikings to catch the Lions first.)

So unless the Seahawks take a 3-0 lead, they have no chance of winning the division without having to beat the Rams. That means Seattle actually needs to go 4-0 to win the division unless LA collapses in the next two games.

Despite currently leading the league, the Seahawks are under tremendous pressure to play their best football of the season, and they haven’t really been that good of a team at home lately.

How the Cardinals Win the Division (Yes, That’s Possible)

The only remaining game on Arizona’s schedule that would be an upset would be a win against the Rams in Week 17. The Cardinals defeated the Rams 41-10 this season.

• Week 15: Cardinals vs. 3-10 Patriots
• Week 16: Cardinals at 3-10 Panthers
• Week 17: Cardinals at 8-6 Rams
• Week 18: Cardinals vs. 6-8 49ers

I don’t know if you noticed or not, but the 49ers are finishing the season. They won’t show up in Week 18. So if the Cardinals have anything to offer, they will be much better prepared for this game.

That means unless Arizona suffers an upset against two of the NFL’s worst teams, they’re essentially playing the Rams in Week 17 for the right to play for the division title.

But why? What is the tiebreaker?

• If the Cardinals win, they will finish at 10-7 and have a division record of 4-2.
• If the Rams and Seahawks both finish 10-7, there will be a tiebreaker is not an uncomplicated head-to-head balance.
• If the Rams go 2-1 (loss to Arizona), they will finish at 10-7 and have a division record of 3-3.
• If the Seahawks go 2-2 (losing to Rams), they will finish at 10-7 and have a division record of 3-3.

The Cardinals will have lost 2-0 to the Rams, but will have lost 0-2 to the Seahawks.

The Seahawks will have lost 0-2 to the Ram, but will have lost 2-0 to the Cardinals.

The Rams will have lost 2-0 to the Seahawks, but will have lost 0-2 to the Cardinals.

This means the tiebreaker would come down to the division record:

• 10-7 Cardinals, 4-2 Division
• 10-7 Rams, 3-3 Division
• 10-7 Seahawks, 3-3 Division

If the Cardinals win, they are guaranteed a division win unless Seattle goes 4-0 or 3-1. Because of what I just laid out, the Rams couldn’t win the Division of Arizona. This would mean the Rams lost to the Cardinals and would lose to them in both tiebreakers.

Who will win it?

The Rams didn’t even score a touchdown on Thursday, but they did make it a win by beating the 49ers. This will be a big test for Seattle to prove they can beat the Packers, Vikings and Rams, while their game on Thursday night in Chicago is no walk in the park.

This pressure on the current department head could work to LA’s advantage. But the Cardinals shouldn’t be taken lightly; Despite their current bad position, they have two games they could win, and then it just depends on how they play against the Rams.

Still, the Rams appear to have the advantage tonight. They knocked out the 49ers and could do no worse than play Seattle for the NFC West title.

This is now the defeat of the Rams division.