NFL Betting Notebook Week 17: Saturday

I compiled notes for each game that Judah Fortgang and I address each week on the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show, and have since expanded this to include game-by-game betting notes for all Sunday games.

The idea is to put my research and thoughts on paper in a quick bulleted format to help me figure out what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully you can find similar benefit from this article as you work through your decision-making process.

Each game includes data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end that quickly summarizes how I am most likely to bet the game from the perspective of spreads, totals and player props .

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CHARGERS -4.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• The Patriots have blitzed on 37% of their pass defense snaps this season (sixth-highest rate in the NFL), but they are still a bottom-five defense in pressure percentage.
  • A team that blitzes often without creating pressure is a good opponent for most quarterbacks, but that’s especially true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled both against the blitz and out of a clean pocket.
    • Justin Herbert PFF passes the grades | 2024 season
      • Vs. Blitz: 83.1 (2nd)
      • From a clean bag: 92.0 (3rd)
  • The Chargers have continued to be a pass-heavy team since their departure at the start of the season. Assuming the game remains competitive, this is a good place to attack Herbert’s passing overs/alts.