NHL Betting Preview (December 10): Bruins vs. Jets odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he breaks down Tuesday’s game between the Boston Bruins and Winnipeg Jets.

Bruins vs Jets odds

• Boston Bruins Moneyline: +120
• Winnipeg Jets money line: -145
• Puck line: Bruins +1.5 (-225), Jets -1.5 (+180)
• Game total: 5.5 (over -115, under -105)

Match odds via Sports Interaction.

Bruins Handicap (15-14 SU, 7-22 ATS, 13-15-1 O/U)

The Bruins have won seven of their last eight games against the Jets and could catch Winnipeg at the right time on Tuesday. Boston has won seven of nine games since his coaching change, while Winnipeg has lost six of its last nine games.

Tuesday’s game is the start of a five-game road trip in the Western Conference for the Bruins, who are on a four-game winning streak. One notable absence from Monday’s practice, however, was star forward David Pastrnak. According to reporter Steve Conroy, the 28-year-old missed training due to an upper body injury but will travel with the team and hopes to play.

Pastrnak, a former 60-goal scorer, has scored just 25 goals this season and has scored just one goal in his last 11 games. However, his scoring rate (7.8) is half of his career average (13.7). Despite the slump, he’s still leading the team in scoring over the last 10 games, so it’s only a matter of time before Boston’s best shooter starts scoring again. Plus, he’s still playing at a pace of nearly a point per game.

Jeremy Swayman didn’t play at an elite level, but the Bruins’ defense was exceptional. With five-on-five play in the last month, Boston ranks second in expected goals against and sixth in shot attempts against goals per 60 minutes, which has contributed to it allowing the 10th-fewest goals against. Offensively, however, they are in the bottom 10 in expected goals and shot attempts, giving them a league-average performance.

Jets Handicap (20-9 SU, 15-14 ATS, 12-16-1 O/U)

The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 road games, so they deserve some rest due to a tough schedule. Nevertheless, they experienced two of their worst home games in a row during this time. Winnipeg lost 4-1 in what many called its worst game of the season, then rebounded with road wins at Buffalo and Chicago. But back in Winnipeg, the Jets suffered another 4-1 loss to the Blue Jackets, a team that had previously won just three of 14 road games.

Winnipeg’s offense has been wildly inconsistent over the last month. After starting the season as the league’s highest-scoring team, the Jets have scored one goal or fewer in half of their last 16 games. In the other eight games they have scored at least three goals, sometimes even more. Since November 7th, only five teams have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes.

In October, the Jets had five players scoring more than a point per game, but almost all of them have cooled off since November. Kyle Connor scored nine goals and nine assists in his first 11 games, but has only scored six goals in the 19 games since. Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi have stepped up, but the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers hurt. Even after missing five games, Ehlers is still fourth on the team in points.

The Jets also had problems defensively. After allowing two or fewer goals in nine of their first 15 games, they have allowed three or more in 10 of their last 14. As of Nov. 12, Winnipeg ranks 23rd in goals against per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey and Dylan. Samberg’s absence hasn’t helped. Of course, Connor Hellebuyck continues to be great. Even in the last month, despite all of Winnipeg’s struggles, Hellebuyck still ranks first in goals saved above expectations.

Best bets for Bruins vs. Jets

• Morgan Geekie Anytime Goal (+500) at Sports Interaction

Morgan Geekie has only one goal and three assists in his first 18 games, but he’s thriving on Boston’s top line with Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak. In his last six games, Geekie scored three goals and two assists and ranked third on the team in shots on goal in his last ten games. The Manitoba native has never scored against the Jets, but with an above-average shot and a prime chance, that could change. However, this player prop is a long shot, which is why I halved my usual bet amount.

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