NHL Betting Tips – Maple Leafs-Devils and Wild-Utah tips

While none of them are confirmed as starters as of Monday, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ matchups at the New Jersey Devils and the Minnesota Wild’s at Utah Hockey Club could conceivably be among the top 13 goaltenders in every field, as well as in three of four goalkeepers among the top six goalkeepers.

Among goalkeepers with at least 300 minutes (a very generous qualifier), Filip Gustavsson is the absolute leader in both GAA and save percentage. Both Leafs goalies, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, rank in the top five in every statistical measurement. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka ranks fifth in goals-against rate and sixth in save percentage. Jacob Markstrom is a long shot as he ranks 13th in goals against rate but only 25th in saves rate.

Still, the lineup of starters ready to compete in two important duels on Tuesday is impressive.

This begs the question: Does a statistically top goalie impact sports betting results? Specifically, we focus on the over/under.

There are a few chicken-versus-egg problems that can’t be easily solved here.

On the one hand, sports betting almost certainly integrates some of it into the odds, so the results tend to trend downwards. Sportsbooks don’t always know exactly who will start in each game, especially when we look at the Wild, where Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have very different statistical results. This season, 62% of games have seen an overall Over/Under score of 6.5. However, when a starting goalie is involved among the statistically leading players, that number drops to 53%.

Second, the list of statistical leaders has evolved over the course of the season, so this analysis is tailored to the current point in time (as of December 10). Joseph Woll was not one of the front runners at the beginning of the season when he started late due to injury. His inclusion in our sample reflects his recent performance rather than his season-long numbers. To be clear, the current league leader hasn’t necessarily been dominant all season, but we are analyzing past games based on their current league leadership status.

Aside from these two issues, let’s take a look at how the top goalkeepers’ over/underplay results have evolved.

Overall, the games with the goalkeepers managed to trend towards “under” regardless of the over/under limit. Overall, 53.6 percent of games this season were undershot. Games with the top 13 goalkeepers in goals against average were under 56.5 percent of the time, while games with the top six goalkeepers in goals against average were under 64.8 percent of the time. This shows the ability of these leaders to influence results at least a little, especially if they have an excellent savings rate.

In games with an over/under total of 6.5, the overall strike rate for the under this season is 57.8%, but for the GAA leaders it is 62.6% and for the save percentage leaders it is rising them to 74%. That’s right; In the 47 games with an overall rate of 6.5 involving the six best goalkeepers in terms of save percentage (Gustavsson, Connor Hellebuyck, Stolarz, Lukas Dostal, Woll and Vejmelka), 35 games were lost.

The margins get smaller when sportsbooks take these goalies into account. In games with a total score of 5.5, the overall undershoot rate is 46.7%, rising to 49.4% for GAA leaders and 53.7% for save percentage leaders.

Is there an advantage here that can be exploited? Maybe, but it also has to feel right. The Leafs and Devils have a combined 6.5 on the board, but does it feel like these two power plays can be kept in check to stay under that number? Especially because we had to make a real effort to even include Markstrom in this conversation. I’ll probably beat the under on a parlay in the same game, but that’s not something I attack.

I would prefer games with goaltenders on both ends among the statistical leaders, such as the potential for the Minnesota-Utah matchup. The problem is that the line opened with an overall score of 5.5, so the quality of goalkeeping is already taken into account.

However, keep this bias in mind. In most cases, if you see top goalkeepers battling it out and have an overall rating of 6.5, it’s worth picking up. Maybe we’ll get one on Thursday when Dostal and the Ducks visit Woll and the Leafs.

Current odds at time of publication. For the latest odds movements, check out ESPN BET.

Selected games

Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils

7 p.m., Prudential Center, live on ESPN+, Hulu and now Disney+

• Devil (-1.5, +170), -135 moneyline

• Maple leaves (+1.5, -215), +115 money line

• Overall 6.5: (Over +105, Under -125)

Both teams enter the match after defeats: two defeats in a row for the Leafs and a narrow defeat for the Devils. It is the second direct duel for Devils coach Sheldon Keefe against his old club, with the Leafs defeating him in his first home game at the Prudential Center on October 10th.

The Leafs have been rotating their goaltenders evenly lately, with Stolarz next in line if the rotation continues. Markstrom is a lock for the Devils after Jake Allen was in net in Sunday’s loss to the Avalanche.

As mentioned above, I’m bearish on the downside, even though the total is 6.5, largely due to the firepower of both power plays. However, there is one particular offering that I like about this game and that strikes a good balance: Both teams score more than 3 goals (+130). The odds are greater than the over and the most likely way to get there as it doesn’t feel ripe for one side to dominate. Don’t forget that the under could still technically score if the game goes into a shootout at 3-3.

In terms of player stats, both teams currently have a player on their top power play unit who has a better chance simply because he isn’t a superstar. So why not stack them? Matthew Knies for Over 0.5 total power play points (+375) and Stefan Noesen for Over 0.5 total power play points (+375) Combine for +1581 in a parlay in the same game.

Minnesota Wild at Utah Hockey Club

9:30 p.m., Delta Center, live on ESPN+, Hulu and now Disney+

• Wild (-1.5, +200), -120 moneyline

• Utah HC (+1.5, -275), +100 money line

• Overall 5.5: (Over -120, Below +100)

Gustavsson hasn’t suffered a loss since Nov. 25 against the Winnipeg Jets, but there have been a number of less dangerous opponents since then, aside from one game against the Vancouver Canucks. Utah also had a good run of games during the same period, only the team failed to pick up a point in the standings in a 2-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on December 2nd.

In other words, both teams are relatively strong if you look past the Wild’s loss on Saturday with Fleury in the crease (his first loss of the season, by the way).

The Wild have defied the odds as they are considered away favorites with a much better record against both the spread (7-4) and the moneyline (8-3) than the rest of the league.

The strength of the youngest goalkeeper made me interested in the sub-team, even though it is 5.5 overall. As much as I would prefer odds from the spread on the wild instead of the moneyline, picking a favorite to beat the spread and go for the under is a recipe for disaster. So this could be a game with the same game Wild Money Line (-120) And Under 5.5 total goals (-105) for combined odds of +226. If you’re a little keener than me, you can change that Wild -1.5 game spread (+200) with a custom Under 4.5 total goals (+240) to increase their bet to +774, but that really requires a specific outcome (3-1 or 2-0 for the wild).

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Stat Stories: Monday’s standout NHL fantasy performances

Starting Monday, take a look at some of the fantasy NHL’s top performers, including Arvid Soderblom and Jason Zucker.

Betting trends

While we’re on the topic of over/under, let’s take a look at this season’s overall data.

Of the 444 games through Monday, 238 games were over (53.6%) while 206 games were over (46.4%).

But when it comes to games with a total of 6.5, 160 games were under (57.8%) while 117 games were over (42.2%).

And when it comes to games with a total score of 5.5, 78 games were under (46.7%) while 89 games were over (53.3%).

How do these affect the tried-and-tested $1 stake thought experiment?

• If you had bet $1 on every 6.5 game to fall under, you would have made the following earnings: $135.62 for 160 wins and a loss of $117 for a net result of $18.62.

• If you had bet $1 on every 6.5 completed games, you would have earned the following: $114.75 with 117 wins and a loss of $160 with a net result of -$45.25.

• Betting $1 on each 5.5 game to fall under would have resulted in a gross profit of $80.41 on 78 wins and a loss of $89 on a net result of -$8.59.

• If you had bet $1 on every 5.5 completed games, you would have made the following earnings: $70.72 for 89 wins and a loss of $78 for a net result of -$7.28.

Of all the basic betting strategies, from over/under to moneyline to spread for favorites or underdogs on the road or at home, the 6.5 Under bet is the only one that stays in the black. That’s because sometimes there are pretty good odds of winning. While low odds like -130 and -125 have won the most (31 and 30 times respectively), there have been plenty of hits at better paying odds this season on the Unders with a total of 6.5 players: -110 has won 16 times, – 105 has won 10 times and Even Money has won nine times.