NHL Betting Tips – Red Wings-Bruins and Oilers-Golden Knights tips

A division leader has a home run against the team that’s fourth in their division – a team they’ve already beaten 4-2 on the road this season – so of course they’d start as home underdogs… right?

The Vegas Golden Knights sit atop the Pacific Division and welcome the Edmonton Oilers to Sin City on Tuesday with an opening series that had the Oil away as -130 favorites. Of course, such a description of the event is a little misleading, since the Pacific is narrow with the margin between the teams (five points) and the Oilers have a game in hand. However, this line is an example of the influence of “What have I done for myself lately” on sports betting. The Knights have lost two of their last three games, including a 6-0 loss to the Utah Hockey Club on Saturday, while the Oilers have rattled off three straight wins, including a win over the Utah team.

Among the current top ten teams in the standings, which also includes the Golden Knights, there have only been 19 times this season that they have been considered underdogs at home. And very few of these events have featured an away favorite trailing the home team in the standings. In such situations there are usually special circumstances, for example when the Oilers were away favorites against the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 16th. Connor McDavid came to play in front of family and the Leafs were without captain Auston Matthews.

The home underdogs took victory on this occasion, as they did in nine of the 19 cases in which these top teams were not favored on home ice. This win rate of 47.4% exceeds the underdog’s overall win rate this season (62 of 152 for 40.8%).

Part of that story is that the Golden Knights are still missing their captain Mark Stone, while the Oilers may get back one of their 50-goal scorer from last season, Zach Hyman.

The spread results for this particular situation are a bit more separated, as the home underdog has covered 13 of those 19 games for the top teams, a coverage percentage of 68.4% that is only moderately better than the overall home underdog -Spread this season (95 covers). of 152 opportunities for a coverage percentage of 62.5).

It’s the second time this campaign that the Golden Knights have been called home, which is notable for a team that leads its division and started 8-0 at T-Mobile Arena. The other time they were outsiders at home? Their first home loss came on November 11th against the Carolina Hurricanes.

So do we stand by the books and assume the Oilers will win but probably won’t beat the spread? Or do we think the Golden Knights feel bad for doubting them against a division rival in their own stadium? Or will betting trends reverse between now and puck drop?

For my money, I like dynamics, but I like global trends more. The slight increase in success for home underdogs when they are a team among the league’s elite – even in a small sample – is enough for me to finish behind the Knights at home.

Selected games

Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins

7 p.m., TD Garden, Watch live on ESPN+/Hulu

Current odds at time of publication. For the latest odds movements, check out ESPN BET.

• Bruins (-1.5, +130), -195 money line

• Red wings (+1.5, -155), +165 money line

• Overall 5.5: (Over -125, Below +105)

The Bruins earned a 2-1 victory as visitors to Detroit on November 23rd. Since then, the Red Wings have lost two goaltenders. Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot will not be available for this game. Ville Husso will line them up and prospect Sebastian Cossa gets a call to back him up.

For the Bruins, wins come as intermittently with interim coach Joe Sacco on the bench as with Jim Montgomery, and they shouldn’t take too much comfort in beating the New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens last week. Neither team has much momentum behind them at the moment.

With Patrick Kane still sidelined, Michael Rasmussen is a stealthy candidate for power-play production on the first unit for Detroit, which continues to be a top-10 team with the edge. Morgan Geekie still appears to be getting ice time at the helm with David Pastrnak at the helm for Boston.

My parlay in the same game: Red Wings +1.5 game spread; Over 5.5 total goals; Over 0.5 Morgan Geekie total score (+516).

Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights

10 p.m., T-Mobile Arena, live on ESPN+/Hulu

• Oiler (-1.5, +175), -130 money line

• Golden Knights (+1.5, -225), +110 money line

• Overall 6.5: (Over -105, Under -115)

Additionally, the Oilers are 5-4 on the money line when they are away favorites and 3-6 against the spread in those situations. The home underdog has covered the spread in the last three games in which the Oilers were the preferred players, clearly winning two of these games. As mentioned, the Golden Knights are 0-1 on both the spread and moneyline when they were called home for the only time this season.

Hyman’s status will be a big factor in prop betting, not so much because he’s a target, but because his lack of exposure opens up other opportunities. When he’s not in the lineup, Kasperi Kapanen will play five minutes against Connor McDavid all evening, while Corey Perry will become the focal point of attack for the Oilers. The power play has looked pretty good for Perry, producing 4.93 shot attempts per two minutes (well above average) and two goals in the last three games.

While we don’t expect to see Stone yet, Victor Olofsson finally returned to the Golden Knights on Saturday, but he didn’t get the power play time he did before his injury on October 15th. It appears that Pavel Dorofeyev has completely displaced him there, while William Karlsson continued to keep Stone’s seat warm on the upper unit.

But there are a few others I would target for both teams’ advantage: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for over 0.5 power play points at +375 and Tomas Hertl for the same at +450. These chances are not given given the chances that both players have an advantage.

A team full of skilled shot blockers in every game. Look for some extra power in this game as the Oilers are second in the league with the most blocked shots by opposing blue-liners. Brayden McNabb should have a field day.

My parlay in the same game: Golden Knights +1.5 game spread; More than 2.5 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins total shots on goal; Over 0.5 Tomas Hertl Power Play total points (+1353).

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Betting trends

Street underdog, home favorite; Road favorite, home dog – this dynamic is starting to give us enough data this season to assess how well sportsbooks are predicting outcomes. First of all, sports betting providers in all areas fortunately collect their profits when it comes to spreads. Let’s break it down with the reliable $1 betting tests:

• If you had bet $1 on each home favorite to beat the spread, you would have made: $136.02 for 92 wins and a loss of $147 for a net result of -$10.98.

• If you had bet $1 on each away underdog to beat the spread, your earnings would have been: $83.60 for 147 wins and a loss of $92 for a net result of -$8.40.

• If you had bet $1 on each home underdog to beat the spread, your earnings would have been: $49.29 for 95 wins and a loss of $57 for a net result of -$7.71.

• If you had bet $1 on each away favorite to beat the spread, you would have made: $91.87 for 57 wins and a loss of $95 for a net result of -$3.13.

It’s hard not to focus on away favorites like the Oilers this Tuesday as they are one of the more promising areas to look for value. In terms of gross results, the away favorites trail only the home favorites in overall winnings, despite being the least likely to have covered the spread in the four categories. It’s tempting to think about weeding out some of the chaff from the 95 times an away favorite has failed while focusing on the very profitable 57 times, but finding these opportunities is rarely as easy as it seems .

Coincidentally, the Oilers aren’t alone in that designation on Tuesday.

• The Colorado Avalanche are 2-3 against the team as away favorites as they play their sixth game with that mark in Buffalo. As away favorites, they are also 5-0 on the money line.

• The New York Islanders travel to Montreal as away favorites for the fifth time this season. They have lost all four of their previous games, failing to beat the spread each time.

• The Florida Panthers travel to Pittsburgh as away favorites. They are the preferred team in the visitor’s room at 3-4.

History suggests we may get one or two of the away favorites to beat the spread among the Oilers, Avalanche, Islanders and Panthers, all of whom should have advantageous lines. If I had to consider these four lines, I would immediately throw out the Islanders while supporting the Avs, who are considered road favorites based on their respective perfect and inverse-perfect records. As mentioned above, I have the Golden Knights taking the spread against the Oilers. That leaves me with a coin flip to take the Panthers – but how can we not trust them to handle Pittsburgh after breaking down their poor wins against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes?

There are many other factors to consider, but focusing on betting categories like these can help you identify which games to consider and compare, rather than looking at each competition in a vacuum.