No. 4 Penn State vs. Maryland final odds and prediction in Week 14

From the very first rankings of 2024, the College Football Playoff committee gave Penn State one clear mandate: Win and you’re in. The Nittany Lions have remained at No. 4 even with a loss to No. 2 Ohio State resuming, and after last week’s near-disaster in Minnesota, James Franklin’s team still hasn’t slipped behind Notre Dame.

11-1 Penn State will host a first-round playoff game at Beaver Stadium, and after last Saturday’s 26-25 win over Minnesota, the Nittany Lions are just one game away from an 11-win regular season.

In Week 14, Penn State hosts 4-7 Maryland in the regular season finale for a bid for the CFP. That’s not the only thing at stake when the Nittany Lions and Terrapins square off at Happy Gorge at 3:30 p.m. ET. In addition to making the CFP for the first time, Franklin has a chance to win his second Big Ten title game, but he needs help from Michigan by beating Ohio State to face Oregon in Indianapolis. However, that may not be the best thing for Penn State.

With so much at stake against an inferior Maryland team, the Nittany Lions are the clear favorites heading into Week 14. Here’s a look at the odds.

These odds are available on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Money line

Spread

In total

In 2020, Maryland and many other teams defeated a struggling Penn State team. The Terrapins won this year’s contest 35-19, but overall Franklin is 8-2 against the Terrapins and since 2017, when the Penn State program really got going, the Nittany Lions are 6-1 with an average winning margin of 40 points. This “rivalry” was shockingly one-sided and Franklin loved to beat up the program he was an assistant coach for from 2000-04.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if this season’s match was similar. Maryland has struggled passing the ball all season, and it won’t get any easier against a Penn State defense that ranks seventh nationally and allows fewer than 100 yards per game. That put a lot of pressure on quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. The redshirt junior has four 300-yard passing games this season, three of which have resulted in wins, but he is coming off a thumb injury that forced him to forfeit last week’s loss to Iowa and could see him return on Saturday keep on the sideline.

If Edwards can’t go, it will be MJ Morris, who competed for the starting spot before the season after transferring from NC State. Morris scored on 12/23. against the Hawkeyes, 103 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. The Terps have an explosive wide receiver in Tai Felton, who caught both touchdowns, but there isn’t enough talent on that side of the ball to threaten Tom Allen’s defense.

Offensively, Penn State will adjust to life without right tackle Anthony Donkoh, who is out with a long-term injury he suffered on the first drive last week. The redshirt freshman is a rising star and his absence could be an issue in the CFP, but on Saturday, Drew Allar will be protected against a Maryland defense that ranks 121st in sacks per game and the Nittany Lions one lead to overwhelming victory. I will predict Penn State 41 Maryland 10.