No Nick Nash, no problem?

The Hawaii Bowl has a reputation for providing some of the most exciting matchups of the bowl season, and this year’s game has the potential to top them all.

With the USF Bulls and San Jose State Spartans bringing firepower and outstanding individual talent, this matchup could turn into an all-out shootout – assuming the offensive starters take the field. Check out our USF vs. San Jose State prediction to see who we think comes out on top.

USF vs. San Jose State Hawaii Bowl betting preview

All USF vs. San Jose State Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Tuesday, December 24, 2024. CFN spread is from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  USF -2.5
• Spread
  San Jose State -2.5
• Money line
  San Jose State -125, USF +105
• Over/Under
  64.5 points
• Playtime
  Tuesday, December 24th, 8pm ET
• Location
  Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex | Honolulu
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN

San Jose State started as a 2.5-point favorite and the line shifted further in the Spartans’ favor as more South Florida players entered the transfer portal. The Bulls’ chances likely hinge on the health of starting quarterback Byrum Brown, who has been out for several months. The Spartans also lost several defensive backs to the transfer portal. So if the Bulls can take advantage of that, they have a great chance to pull off an upset.

MORE: Who decided not to attend a bowl game? Track them all with our College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker!

If San Jose State superstar Nick Nash plays, it could be a real shootout, as evidenced by the overall score of 64.5. But all signs point to Nash not keeping up, and so the line has moved back dramatically to 2.5 in favor of the Spartans, rather than the bloated -5 it reached a week before kickoff.

Probability of USF winning

CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Bulls, making them five-point favorites. This corresponds to a probability of winning of 54.6%.

There have been rumors that some defensive starters could enter the transfer portal. In this case, this percentage could decrease.

• vs. San Jose State: 54.6%

San Jose State’s probability of winning

On the other hand, the Spartans are slight underdogs with a win probability of 45.4%. San Jose State retains most of its electric passing attack and the Spartans probably have a better chance of winning than that number suggests.

Prediction for USF vs. San Jose State

This preview wouldn’t be complete without highlighting the highly anticipated homecoming of San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo. Niumatalolo is considered one of the greatest quarterbacks in Hawaii high school football history. He graduated from Radford High School in Honolulu in 1985 and led the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors under Paul Johnson’s option offense from 1987 to 1989. He famously led the Rainbow Warriors to their first-ever bowl game appearance in 1989.

One can’t help but wonder if Niumatalolo might talk about it a little more when he returns to the Aloha State.

The key matchup here is the Spartans’ fourth-ranked passing offense meeting South Florida’s 133rd-ranked pass defense. The Bulls are already struggling in the secondary, and the lack of starting safety Tawfiq Byard only compounds their problems.

Nash reportedly won’t play, and even then the over is still in play.

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On the other hand, South Florida’s offense showed flashes late in the season, with backup quarterback Bryce Archie gaining confidence. However, their increase was due to timing. Against five opponents ranked below 110th in SP+, the Bulls averaged an explosive 50 points per game.

But against better competition? The offensive stalls. In five games against teams that were ranked at any point this season, the Bulls put up just 10.2 points per game and only dropped 15 points in poor games against Alabama and Miami.

There’s a good case to be made that San Jose State could be the first respectable team the Bulls face this season. The Spartans’ defense isn’t as strong as Tulane’s or Memphis’s, but it’s far better than Charlotte’s or Southern Miss’s.

My reading? The actual offense in South Florida falls somewhere between these extremes – but looks more like the unit that stumbled against the Navy than the unit that defeated FAU.

Even if the Bulls find some success on offense, it’s hard to imagine them being able to contain the Spartans. San Jose State should easily top 500 yards.

Take Nash’s overs, take control of the game and expect a comfortable Spartans win.

Forecast: San Jose State 42, USF 23

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