Notre Dame plays USC in the College Football Playoff with revenge on its mind

Nearly three months have passed since Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois, still one of the most impressive results of the season, and each passing week has made two things clear:

First, that the result was an aberration. Since then, Notre Dame has won nine straight games, all but one by double figures.

And second, that despite having an easier schedule than most of the Power Four contenders still in the College Football Playoff, the No. 5 Fighting Irish are right to claim a spot right in front of the playoff bid ahead of the Finals They secured regular season action on Saturday against Southern California.

You got help. A top-heavy ACC and major upheaval in the SEC and Big 12 have paved the way for Notre Dame to potentially secure an at-large berth even if they lose to the Trojans, although that puts the mediocre strength of the schedule even more into focus would .

“I’ve always said it’s up to you and everyone else to interpret the message that’s being sent,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said of the playoff debate after last Saturday’s 49-14 win over Army.

“On Saturdays there is one goal, which is to achieve team glory. The way you prepare will give you the best opportunity to do so. I want our players to understand this message. We prepare properly, continue to find ways to develop and improve, and hopefully you will achieve the same result as you did tonight. I’m not worried about the message it sends to everyone else, but rather the message it sends to this team and our program.”

The stakes are obvious: win and you’re in. Lose and face the possibility of being eliminated from the field altogether. What happens against the Trojans will determine the success or failure of Notre Dame’s season and shape the still-undecided perception of Freeman’s tenure.

“Our guys will understand the challenge that lies ahead,” Freeman said.

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Notre Dame’s playoff prospects

Televisions at Notre Dame’s football facility this week broadcast the 2022 loss to USC on a loop as a reminder of “what that feeling was a few years ago,” wide receiver Beaux Collins said.

“All the plays are almost memorized and things like that,” Collins said. “We must not forget how big the game is.”

That 2022 game — the Irish gave up 436 yards of offense and lost 38-27 — is emblematic of Freeman’s tenure so far, which has been marked less by victories and more by a series of painful, often avoidable defeats. Northern Illinois is this year’s example. This 2022 season also featured hard-to-believe losses to Marshall and Stanford.

The Irish are touchdown favorites against USC, which secured bowl eligibility with last week’s win over UCLA. The Trojans have made strides defensively under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn but have been uncharacteristically weak on offense, leading to the quarterback change to former backup Jayden Maiava this month.

“They’re very talented,” Lynn said of Notre Dame. “Their offensive line is probably going to be the best offensive line we’ve played all year. Both defenders are very good defenders. They have great tight ends. They have outside speed.”

Notre Dame and No. 4 Penn State are the only two teams playing Saturday guaranteed to clinch a playoff spot with a win. No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State are already projected to make the field regardless of how the regular season ends over the next two weeks. Teams like No. 8 Tennessee and No. 10 Indiana are also in good shape, although there are scenarios that could develop and complicate things for the Volunteers and Hoosiers.

While a loss to USC would only be Notre Dame’s second, it could open an at-large bid for a second ACC team or a fourth team from the SEC should No. 13 Alabama beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl or No. 14 South Carolina win the rivalry against No. 12 Clemson.

“Yes, the things we’ve done in the past have given us the opportunity to be in this moment where we’re playing for a game that, yes, if we win, we’re in it,” Freeman said . “That’s what they say. If you win, you’re in.”

A reputation-making moment for Marcus Freeman

Saturday’s subplot is Freeman’s chance to change the narrative surrounding his three-year tenure, which, even given Notre Dame’s torrid nine games since September, continues to be marked by a series of missed opportunities.

“We have to be at our best on Saturday,” offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock said. “They are very, very capable of playing championship level football. We have to face this challenge and be ready to get started.”

This is not a moment the program has handled well under Freeman. For example, since he took over, Notre Dame has lost two games to Ohio State, missing the chance for a sparkling, reputation-building win. The Irish also struggled away from home with a record of 7-4 in real away games during the regular season.

A loss to the Trojans would add to the simmering unrest over the program’s inability to overcome the crisis and return to the playoffs. Notre Dame reached the national semifinals twice in former coach Brian Kelly’s last four seasons with another New Year’s Six bid.

A win on Saturday could not only likely give the Irish a home game in the opening round of the playoffs, but also propel them back to the Bowl Subdivision’s elite upper echelon. Once in the playoffs, Notre Dame’s performance since September could make this a trendy pick to advance deep into the postseason and potentially win the program’s first national championship since 1988.

The Irish have outscored their last nine opponents by more than 30 points per game, with just one win, against Louisville, decided by single digits.

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