Race for No. 1: Patriots have control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft after the Giants’ Week 17 win

The New England Patriots have overtaken the New York Giants The Athletics Prediction for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which would potentially give New England the franchise’s first No. 1 pick since 1993.

The Giants’ shocking Week 17 win over the Indianapolis Colts delivered the second major shakeup to the top pick order in as many weeks, with the first new No. 1 pick since the series began.

Since then, the New York Giants have led the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft The athlete began tracking forecasts in week 14. A 10-game losing streak put the Giants in prime position to select a quarterback in April’s draft.

The Raiders’ win last week made New York the only two-win team in the league. A week later, the Giants have slipped in the draft rankings to their lowest point in weeks.

With Week 18 just a week away, the field has narrowed even further.

Four teams enter Week 18 with a record of 3-13. New England gets to the top thanks to the league’s tiebreaker system – a strong schedule. The order within the duels is determined by the combined records of a team’s 17 opponents over the course of the year. According to Tankathon, New England is the only team with three wins and a current playing strength below .500 (.465). If all four teams somehow won next week, New England’s strength of schedule is currently less than that of any other four-win team (beating second-worst Jacksonville by 0.3 percent).

New England Patriots – 53 percent

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The Chargers defeated the Pats 40-7 and made the playoffs in Harbaugh’s first year: Takeaways

New England moved to the top of the standings with a 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers – the franchise’s fourth-worst defeat by point differential since owner Robert Kraft bought the team in 1994. The Patriots already have their quarterback in Drake Maye of the future. So if New England is on the clock, it would be a prime candidate for a trade or the inevitable landing spot for wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner. However, the Patriots face the Buffalo Bills, who are likely to be their starters sidelined until the postseason after securing the No. 2 seed in the AFC. With the defeat against Cleveland, New England’s ratings fell noticeably, from 67 percent at the beginning. However, if Mitchell Trubisky and Co. have enough to hand New England its seventh straight loss, the Patriots will certainly earn the top spot.

Opponents week 18: Home vs. Bills

Tennessee Titans – 26 percent

With their loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, the Titans maintained their place in the race for the top pick. Regardless of where they end up, it’s a huge boon for a team that has needs across the roster. The Titans could pass on Will Levis, marking their highest quarterback selection in the draft since Marcus Mariota in 2015. They could bring in offensive help for a team that ranks 31st in offensive DVOA, or draft Hunter to bolster the bottom three offense and a 20th ranked pass defense in DVOA. Tennessee’s strong schedule gives it a good shot at the top pick if New England wins next week. However, the Titans face the Houston Texans, who are seeded fourth in the AFC.

Opponents week 18: Home against Texans

Cleveland Browns – 18 percent

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The Dolphins keep their playoff hopes alive with a 20-3 win over the Browns: Takeaways

The Browns may have gotten lucky and found one of the best possible scenarios for their roster dilemma. According to Over the Cap, Cleveland will enter the 2025 season just over $17 million over the estimated cap. This came after the Browns agreed to a contract restructuring for Deshaun Watson’s massive, fully guaranteed deal. Now Cleveland could find a way to extricate itself from the Watson contract while maintaining a playoff-caliber roster by selecting a first-round quarterback. With a score of 3:13, Cleveland is just above the quarterback-desperate Giants in the tiebreaker. Could the injury-plagued Browns save the franchise from itself?

Opponents week 18: with the Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants – 3 percent

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Giants destroy Colts’ playoff hopes with 45-33 win: Insights

After posting a 63 percent rate in Week 16, the Giants suffered their biggest drop since we began tracking odds. New York’s chance at the top spot is all but gone. It still has a chance, but it will need a lot of help. The opponents from New York have a win rate of 53.7 percent, which makes the Giants the best among the potential three-win teams. That means New York would need another loss from the Giants and wins from the Patriots, Titans and Browns to secure the No. 1 pick again. It’s a long way, but not impossible.

Opponents week 18: with the Philadelphia Eagles

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(Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)