Red Bull made the right decision – but now it is on the verge of making the wrong one

It took a mutual tip from both sides to be the first to make the announcement and not act as an instigator, but now it’s finally official:

Sergio Perez will not drive for Red Bull in 2025.

To have written such a sentence after the Miami Grand Prix in May would have been quite surprising, even at a time when Perez had no contract beyond the end of this year. But to do so despite being given two more years at Red Bull just weeks later is nothing short of astonishingly undoing.

Let’s not forget that Perez was good at the start of this season. Sure, last year he narrowly managed to finish second to Max Verstappen in one of the most dominant seasons of all time, but “just barely” is still enough when you can’t do better than claim a one-two finish in the Drivers’ Championship. Championship and dominate the constructors’ championship.

He then entered 2024 with a similar level of performance. At times he struggled to match his extremely talented teammate, but at other times he pushed him remarkably hard. One such moment is qualifying at Suzuka, where Perez was just 0.066 seconds away from beating Verstappen for pole position, on a track the Dutchman loves and excels at.

Perhaps that was the round that convinced Red Bull to stick with Perez for the next two seasons, expecting that stability would be key at a time when the team was rocking off the track. Due to the changed regulations, it was certainly not the only one that prioritized a fixed lineup for 2025 and 2026.

Suzuka was a rare highlight of Perez’s 2024 season. Zak Mauger/Motorsport Images

Perez also finished a comfortable second place behind Verstappen at Suzuka, securing Red Bull’s third one-two in the first four races. One could argue that the run in China would have been extended had it not been for the timing of an early Virtual Safety Car that allowed Lando Norris to push Perez into third.

Even in Miami, fourth place was a pretty solid result when the safety car helped Norris take the lead. Everything was going so well on the track.

At this point, Red Bull decided to extend Perez’s contract. He was told he would stay on when he returned to Europe and that may have been uninspiring at the time as fans wanted to see Verstappen more challenged, but it had worked for Red Bull.

Had been.

Even now, it’s really hard to understand how the decline could have been so large. Perez never finished in the top five again after Miami and only once did he come close, crashing in Baku while battling Carlos Sainz for the final podium spot.

A return of 49 points from 18 races – plus four sprints – is a catastrophic result. Pierre Gasly collected all 42 of his season points in the same period, and before the summer break he only had six as the Alpine were only competitive in the final quarter of the season.

And yes, the Red Bull wasn’t as competitive as it was earlier in the year, but it was still good enough for Verstappen to score five wins and 301 points over the same 18 race weekends.

Perez had to leave, both for Red Bull’s own good and for his own good, because suddenly something didn’t work in a dramatic way.

But the focus now has to be on the team. Perez’s return at the end of 2020 meant there were no more excuses for the second car alongside Verstappen. An experienced driver – who had scored multiple podiums and even a notable race win for midfielders Force India/Racing Point – replaced the often inexperienced juniors that Red Bull had nurtured.

Gasly and Alex Albon have both subsequently showcased their skills in teams outside the Red Bull sphere, proving they may have been pushed into the top flight too early. Or, more likely, they were not provided with an environment in which they could thrive. The common denominator is not a single driver, but this seat.

And that makes Red Bull’s next step seem all the more wrong.

Liam Lawson is expected to replace Perez. Mark Thompson/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool

Aside from the fact that it passed up on bringing back a driver it had developed through its youth programs and who was by far the best option on the market in the summer – Carlos Sainz – it then also turned down the chance to bring the last one down Using a driver who was really successful alongside Verstappen in the form of Daniel Ricciardo. That’s understandable given Ricciardo’s indifferent form, but by early August all signs were pointing to Perez being replaced.

The turnaround over the summer break surprised many in the paddock – myself included – but in hindsight you have to say it looks so bad. While there was certainly no guarantee that things would go well for Ricciardo, could it have been worse?

Instead of changing something back then, Red Bull will now follow its old approach and fast-track a driver into a position where he is more likely to fail than succeed. This is not a detriment to Liam Lawson’s abilities, but to the environment he puts himself in based on the experiences of all the drivers before him.

Lawson is good, but he still has a lot to learn in Formula 1 and it would be good for him to lead the RB team for a season next year – not to mention his first full season in the sport.

Yuki Tsunoda, on the other hand, can afford to play with him. He spent his time at RB, beat all of his teammates over the last few years and is definitely fast. The only question that remains is whether he can play in a top team. If he got promoted and then struggled, that would be an answer to that and Red Bull would still be behind with Lawson developing close behind him. If he shined, what a bonus.

But Red Bull does not seem to have learned from its own past mistakes. The blame always lies with the driver, but Gasly, Albon and now Perez have now all failed to live up to their potential – albeit significantly below Verstappen to varying degrees – and the team finds itself in a very similar situation to the first two.

Lawson might buck the trend, but history is clearly against him.

In trying to understand how Red Bull came to lose so much money and results to Perez in such a spectacular fashion, it would be wise to look at the number of drivers it had to replace and reflect on that to be clear that what is constant is the team and its way of working.