Stars vs Golden Knights odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he covers Friday’s game between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.

These teams haven’t met since last season’s playoffs, when Dallas recovered from a 2-0 series deficit to beat Vegas in a close seven-game first-round showdown. Four games were decided by one goal, the rest by two, and the series ended with a total score of 16:16. Despite the postseason drama, their last regular-season meeting took place on December 9, 2023. Vegas won the 2023-24 season series and is 5-1-3 in its last 10 regular season games against Dallas.

Dallas Stars money line: -120
Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline: +100
Puck line: Stars -1.5 (+200), Golden Knights +1.5 (-250)
Game total: 6.5 (over +100, under -120)

Match odds via Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Stars (16-9 SU, 12-13 ATS, 9-13-3 O/U)

Friday’s game caps a three-game road trip for the Stars, who beat Utah 2-1 before losing 3-2 to Los Angeles. After that, Dallas begins a six-game homestand – a great chance to narrow the six-point gap behind Winnipeg and Minnesota in the standings. Despite starting the season as Central Division favorites, the Stars struggled on the road with a score of 6-7, but were dominant at home with a league-best 10-2 record.

Dallas is popular in the betting market, likely due to its strong underlying metrics. The Stars are a top 10 team by most advanced metrics, while Vegas’ numbers are less impressive beneath the surface. Nevertheless, the defensive difference between them is not big. According to Evolving Hockey, Dallas ranks fourth in goals against and fifth in goals against, but they are only 15th in expected goals against. Both teams allow a similar level of shooting danger, so they are closer on defense than they appear.

Jake Oettinger has a solid track record against Vegas, with a 4-1-2 record, a 2.04 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage in seven regular-season games. But Adin Hill was perfect against Dallas last season, winning both starts and stopping 55 of 58 shots.

Golden Knights Handicap (17-10 SU, 15-12 ATS, 16-10-1 O/U)

Only four teams have had a better home win percentage than the Golden Knights since 2017-18. That remains true this season, as Vegas has won 10 of its first 13 games at The Fortress. They have lost three of their last five home games but that doesn’t really reflect their current form. Sure, they had their worst home game of the season on November 30th, losing 6-0 to Utah, but they bounced back a few days later with a 1-0 shutout against Edmonton. Additionally, Vegas has been on the road in 11 of its last 17 games and has still won six of its last eight games overall.

Vegas is scoring 3.48 goals per 60 minutes, good for seventh in the league, while allowing 2.89 goals per 60 minutes, good for ninth. Those numbers have fallen recently — they ranked 20th offensively and 14th defensively last month — but there’s no need to panic.

First, the schedule was brutal. This is their 10th game in 17 days and it wasn’t any easier for the Stars, who are also playing their 10th in 18 days.

Second, Hill was outstanding. According to Evolving Hockey, he has allowed two goals or fewer in eight of his last 12 games and ranks fifth in goals saved above expectations. While Vegas has dropped in defensive rating, it has actually allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes over the last month – other teams have simply improved their level.

Third, Mark Stone could be back. On Tuesday he trained in the regular jersey for the first time, which Bruce Cassidy described as an important step towards his return. He wasn’t expected to play against Edmonton or Anaheim, but given his proximity, I’m hoping he can hold his own against Dallas.

Best bets for Stars vs. Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline (+100) at Sports Interaction

Before Stone’s injury on Nov. 6, only one team had scored more goals than Vegas. If the captain comes back it would be a big boost. Opportunities will also change quickly, so I try to stay ahead of any potential news. Sure, it’s a bit of a gamble considering how long Stone has been absent in the past, but I think it’s worth the risk at the same price. Others may prefer to wait for more certainty, and that’s fair – it just depends on how strongly you feel about the issue.

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