Storm destroys Utah’s dry start to December – and more snow to come – Deseret News

The first of two storms expected to hit Utah this weekend ended up outperforming weather models, giving the Beehive State an unusually dry start to December — and there’s more to come.

The wave, part of a system moving in from the California coast, brought 30 cm of new snow to the Alta ski area Friday afternoon, the resort reported. Several other resorts in the area also reported nice new coating.

A few inches of snow even fell in valley areas and up to 10 inches in Clinton, causing some commute headaches due to the timing of the storm.

Sidewalks and driveways are cleared of snow as city hauler Gene Gonzales works his route in the Millcreek area on Friday. (Photo: Laura Seitz, Deseret News)

KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson said the storm was a “pleasant surprise” for skiers, snowboarders and water managers alike, as models had initially indicated the system would weaken as it left California. However, he said the system’s “dynamics” remained better intact than forecast and had reached the low probability levels shown in the weather models.

He attributes this to the “unpredictability” of the weather despite advances in technology. This could be a sign of the second wave, which is likely to be even stronger, but was originally assessed as small.

The storm is expected to reach Utah Saturday afternoon, starting with a mix of valley rain and mountain snow. Johnson said a cold front moving through the region Saturday night and Sunday morning will contribute to more valley snowfall in the northern half of the state, lasting into the middle of Sunday morning.

The system is expected to empty by the end of the day.

The National Weather Service issued a winter weather warning for the Wasatch and West Uinta mountain ranges Friday ahead of the next wave. It goes into effect at noon Saturday and lasts through Sunday afternoon, where the mountains could get another 6 to 12 inches of snow – and possibly even up to 18 inches in parts of the northern Utah mountains.

A trace of up to an inch of additional snow is expected to fall in the valleys of northern Utah, while higher amounts are expected in the Valley Benches and Wasatch Backcountry.

“Hopefully this is a sign that we’re getting things going,” Johnson said, adding that another small system could arrive early next week.

Complete seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online at the KSL Weather Center.

Break a trend

Friday’s storm brought the first moisture of what is typically a wetter month in Utah.

Salt Lake City had not received any moisture as of Friday morning, although it typically receives about 1.4 inches of precipitation in December. The same was true in valley communities across the state.

A cold front system that broke through a long-standing inversion last weekend didn’t produce much moisture. Even in the mountain areas, winter starts slowly. At one of the weather service’s Alta locations, where nearly 28 inches of snow typically falls in December, just 4 inches of snow had fallen just days before the middle of the month.

This follows the meteorological fall being warmer and drier than what Utah normally receives, according to federal climate data released earlier this week.

The National Centers for Environmental Information reported that this year’s meteorological fall was the third warmest in Utah since at least 1895, with a statewide average temperature of 52.1 degrees. The final average was 1.1 degrees below the 1963 record and 0.1 degrees below another unseasonably warm temperature in the fall of 2001.

It was also the state’s 33rd driest fall in 130 years. The state averaged just 2.4 inches of precipitation in September, October and November. However, major storms in the second half of the season proved beneficial, increasing November precipitation to 130% of normal at Natural Resources Conservation Service soil climate sites scattered across the state.

Statewide soil moisture levels were about 33% saturation at the end of the month but remained in the 30th percentile at the end of the season, Jordan Clayton, an agency hydrologist, wrote in a report last week. Soil moisture is considered a key factor in the drainage efficiency of each spring’s snowpack, which accounts for about 95% of the state’s water supply.

Utah’s snowpack – an accumulation of water in snow – ended the month slightly above the late November average, but had fallen back to 81% before this week’s storms.

“(It’s) really one of the slower starts we’ve seen in several years,” added Glen Merrill, a National Weather Service hydrologist, in an interview with KSL-TV this week.

What about the rest of the winter?

While some moisture is possible early next week, the current long-term outlook doesn’t look promising for Utahns dreaming of a white Christmas. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released two-week forecasts just after Dec. 25, putting Utah at a higher chance of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation around the holiday.

Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. Johnson said the overall dry trend could easily continue into 2025, but Merrill said trends don’t always continue through the first half of the snow gathering season. For example, last winter’s snowpack reached 69% of average halfway through the season, but a surge of moisture in the second half led to further above-average snow accumulation.

“It can actually change in the blink of an eye,” he said. “Just because we’re starting slow doesn’t mean we’re going to stay slow the rest of the winter.”

Long-range, full-season forecasts don’t provide much guidance as to whether Utah is in for a dry or wet winter.

The good news in both scenarios is that Utah’s reservoirs are in good shape for at least 2025. According to the Utah Division of Water Resources, the state’s reservoir system remains about 75% full, about the same as last year and 20 percentage points higher than the median average for December.

Contributor: Andrew Adams