Syrian rebels failed for 13 years. How they defeated the Assad regime in 13 days

New Delhi:

Rebels in Syria fought Bashar al-Assad’s regime for 13 years but failed to oust him from power. And then, in a lightning offensive that lasted less than 13 days, the Assad family’s five-decade rule was decimated and the president was forced to leave the country. Behind the rebels’ shocking advance was careful planning, the shifting balance of power in the Middle East and the tacit support of a key regional player.

The timing

The rebels knew that the Assad regime was the most vulnerable. Over the past decade, the Syrian president has used the firepower of his key allies Russia and Iran to repel any resistance to his regime. But Moscow was busy with its war in Ukraine and Tehran was fighting Israel. With Assad’s allies distracted, Damascus was completely exposed. Hezbollah, which played a key role in Assad’s fight against the rebels, also suffered heavy losses after Tel Aviv wiped out its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other commanders. When a ceasefire took effect in Lebanon on November 27, Hezbollah licked its wounds and refused to fight Assad’s war with the rebels. Syria also struggled with internal problems. A source told Reuters that tanks and planes were out of fuel because of large-scale corruption and looting. Some Syrians celebrated the fall of the Assad regime and said many Syrians fled to Lebanon because they did not want to fight their compatriots. The Syrian forces were therefore unequipped, had low morale and had no allies. The rebels knew this was their chance and they took advantage.

The role of Türkiye

As the Assad regime collapsed, Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz told a conference in Bahrain that Ankara was not behind the offensive and had not given consent. He said they were concerned about instability.

But there was no way the rebels would have made any progress with a signal from Turkey. About six months ago, the rebels told Ankara of their plans for a major offensive and believed they had received tacit approval, two sources told Reuters. Turkey has long supported the Syrian opposition, although it considers the rebel alliance’s main force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist group.

It is learned that the major offensive was the brainchild of HTS and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani. HTS began as a Nusra Front with ties to al-Qaeda. Golani is classified as a terrorist in several countries, including the United States, Britain and Turkey. Over the last decade, however, he and his organization have tried to soften their image.

The Turkish foreign and defense ministries did not directly respond to Reuters questions about whether there was an agreement between HTS and Ankara on the Aleppo operation. A Turkish official told Reuters that HTS “does not receive orders or instructions from us (nor does it coordinate its operations with us”). The official said that “in this sense” it was not correct to say that the operation in Aleppo was carried out with Turkey’s consent.

Recep Erdogan and Bashar al Assad in 2011

Ankara’s interests

The war in Syria has driven a wave of refugees to Turkey and this has also become a domestic political problem. The regime of Bashar al-Assad, once a close ally, has long pushed for a political solution to the problem, but received little response. Damascus saw this as a weakness and insisted on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria. This was not an option for Ankara, fearing that it would lead to a further influx of refugees. And then Moscow drew the final straw. Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia’s special envoy to Syria, called Turkey an “occupying power” in Syria and said it was “too early” for talks between Ankara and Damascus.

The rebels sensed that Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government was not happy with Damascus’ rejection of its action. A Syrian opposition source told Reuters that the rebels had shown Turkey details of the planning after Ankara’s attempts to attack Assad failed. The message was: “This other way hasn’t worked for years – so try ours. You don’t have to do anything, just don’t intervene.”

As Damascus experiences regime change, Turkey has reason to be relieved. His tacit support for the rebels could pave the way for peace on the border and also help eliminate resistance from groups like the YPG, which the country has fought for years.

Turkey now hopes that peace in Syria will create an atmosphere that will encourage the return of refugees. However, there is a risk: if the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime ushers in another period of instability, Ankara could face another refugee crisis.

Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes on several targets in Syria

Israel, another winner

Another winner from the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is Israel. The regime change in Damascus has blocked the route through which Iran supplies weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tel Aviv can now effectively wipe out an already weakened Hezbollah. After the rebels took Damascus, Israeli Air Force warplanes struck dozens of targets across Syria, destroying weapons feared could fall into rebel hands, the Times of Israel reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the change in Syria and called it a historic day. He also said that their offensive against Hezbollah was instrumental in regime change in Syria.

“This collapse is a direct result of our vigorous action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main backer. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression. But it also means we have to act.” “One of them is the collapse of the 1974 force-sharing agreement, which was in force for 50 years,” he said.

Israel has now taken control of a demilitarized buffer zone on its border with Syria. “This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable agreement is found. We will follow events very closely. If we can build neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces that are emerging in Syria, that is our wish. But if we don’t do that.” “We will do whatever it takes to defend the state of Israel and Israel’s border,” Netanyahu said.