The 3 best NHL bets and predictions for Monday 12/23/24

From moneylines to total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on NHL action throughout the season. It’s a long 82-game season, meaning the best picks on any given night can vary widely depending on which backup goaltenders come into play, what injuries add up and whether teams face positive or negative swings.

For more NHL insights, check out the daily NHL predictions from FanDuel Research, powered by numberFire.

Let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines may change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used by MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes are from Daily Faceoff.

NHL betting tips today

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Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Jets Moneyline (-102)

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ modest three-game winning streak came to an abrupt end on Saturday evening. The Atlantic Division contenders will look to get back together quickly as they host the Central Division-leading Winnipeg Jets on Monday night. Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, their metrics suggest another loss is on the way.

After winning five of their last seven games, the Leafs’ recent winning streak has given way to unsustainable numbers. Toronto has been outplayed in two of its last three games and is performing well above expectations compared to expected numbers. In the last four games, the Leafs have scored 19 goals, ten of which came in five-on-five situations. This is a significant deviation from the expected overall value of 13.6 or 8.8. A correction is inevitable and should come against a defensively improving Jets squad.

Winnipeg hasn’t always taken advantage of modern hockey, but we’ve seen tremendous improvement in their recent schedule. The Jets have outscored their opponents in three of their last four games while relying on Study defensive zone coverage. During this time, they were able to create an average of 7.8 dangerous chances and 19.3 scoring opportunities for their opponents. The improved defensive structure gives them an advantage over the declining Maple Leafs.

The Leafs’ decreased price reflects their current on-ice product. Still, this line should be in favor of the Jets. Therefore, we see an implicit advantage in backing the underdog Jets at this point.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Flyer Moneyline (+104)

The NHL sends its viewers into the Christmas break with a classic rivalry game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers bounced back from their recent slump with a win last time out and will look to carry that momentum into PPG Paints Arena.

While they earned their first win in four games on Saturday night, the Flyers had already been gaining momentum for a few games. Philadelphia has outscored its opponents in two of its last three games, culminating in an expected goals rate of 53.7%. If you direct the lens further back, you will see even more dominant analytical performance. Since November 23rd, the Flyers have an expected eGF rating of 57.8% and have outscored their opponents in all but two of their 14 games.

In their current form, the Pens cannot keep up with the Flyers. Pittsburgh seemed ineffective compared to its recent sample. They have been outplayed three times in a row and six of the last nine times, an unfavorable streak that actually includes more wins (5) than they deserve. With the Penguins still running around with an inflated PDO, expect more losses after the break.

We see a clear advantage in supporting the Flyers at this point. Even if overtime is not excluded, we see great value in supporting visitors with extra money.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators

Predators Moneyline (+106)

This season didn’t go like the Nashville Predators. Expectations were high for the Preds, but they defeated themselves early in the 2024-25 season. Nonetheless, Nashville has shown signs of breaking out and can head into the holiday break stronger with a win over the visiting Carolina Hurricanes.

The Predators recently turned things around. They have a record of 3-1-1 in their last five games with much improved on-ice play. Thanks to improved defensive resolve, Nashville has outscored its opponents in all but one of these contests. The Preds have denied their last three opponents a total of 19 high-danger chances, with only one of those opponents eclipsing five high-quality chances. As expected, this correlates with fewer goals conceded and a save rate of 94.7% in the five-on-five system.

From a scheduling standpoint, this is a tough spot for the Canes. Carolina is coming off a win Sunday night in New York, playing its third game in four nights. What’s more, they abandoned their typically strong defensive structure and wasted 12 or more dangerous chances two out of three times, while outscoring their opponents just once during that stretch.

A win won’t rid the Predators of all their misfortune, but it will set them up for success in the new year. This is an advantageous place to support Nashville as an underdog in the plus-money home.

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