The biggest snowfall of the season so far is expected on Thursday

The biggest snowfall event so far this season is expected to occur across much of Minnesota on Thursday. Winter storm warnings are issued for much of Minnesota.

A well-organized clipper turns southeast toward Minnesota. The system will produce snow in the Red River Valley before midnight. Between about 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Thursday, snow will fall quickly down I-94 through St. Cloud and into the Twin Cities metro area.

The heaviest snowfall will fall on Thursday morning. There is already snow on the ground for the morning drive to work on Thursday. Snowfall rates of 0.50 to 1 inch per hour are expected for several hours Thursday morning.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model still appears to have a good handle on the system. The following forecast model loop runs between midnight and 6 a.m. Thursday.

Forecast models continue to show a wide zone of 3 to 7 inches of snow across most of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. It still looks like there will be a sharp cutoff with lower snowfall amounts south of the Twin Cities.

This trend is clearly visible in NOAA’s latest 18Z NAM 3 km snowfall output.

NOAA’s HRRR model expects even heavier snowfall amounts of up to 8 to 9 inches in the storm’s sweet spot.

The best chance of seeing higher totals of around 9 inches appears to be north of the Twin Cities.

Temperatures will remain below freezing in the snow zone on Thursday, making roads challenging.

Cool weather in the teens will continue Friday and Saturday, with sub-zero lows in the north.

It looks like there will be enough snow for a white Christmas (at least an inch of snow on the ground).

But Christmas week brings a longer thaw with highs in the 40s possible after Christmas Day.

Stay safe out there, Minnesota.