The factors that drove the bidding for Juan Soto to an unexpected height

DALLAS – Juan Soto’s $765 million contract with the New York Mets exceeded all records and expectations. Soto’s contract is more than $300 million more than the current value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which was signed just last winter. His average annual value of $51 million is more than 10 percent higher than Ohtani’s previous record.

Why was the tender for Soto rejected? The high? At the start of the offseason, I expected Soto to get a 13-year, $611 million contract, and at that point, no network expected the tender for Soto to go above $650 million – let alone $750 million -Dollar.

Firstly, it’s because of his age. Players almost never enter free agency before their age-26 season, let alone players as successful as Soto. At 26 years old, Soto is still younger than Adleyrutschman or Cole Ragans.

Soto is just the fourth major free agent in the last 15 years to hit the open market ahead of his age-26 season, joining Jason Heyward (2016), Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (all in 2019). Players typically peak in their late 20s and begin to decline in their early 30s. And so the average player who becomes a free agent at age 30 only offers one or two seasons of his prime before falling away. Expect Soto to be just as good in the next five to seven seasons as he was in 2024.

Looking ahead, there is no superstar on the horizon that could become a free agent at such a young age any time soon. Teams that would otherwise suggest saving their money for another free agent have little support.

Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras made sports contract history, largely because the slugger achieved free agency at a young age. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Bobby Witt Jr.’s extension with the Kansas City Royals lasts at least until he is 30 years old, and Julio Rodríguez’s extension with the Seattle Mariners lasts until he is at least 29 years old. The Milwaukee Brewers control Jackson Chourio until he’s 30.

Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz will be free agents before the age of 28, and Jackson Merrill before the age of 27. This is the best that can be achieved in current top leagues.

We’ve seen teams pay bonuses for a player’s best performances before. Just go back to last year and the Dodgers’ deal with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles made Yamamoto the highest-paid pitcher in the sport before he had thrown a pitch in the major leagues because he was entering his age-25 season — a dynamic essentially impossible for any domestic free agent to enjoy.

Second, Soto landed on the open market with the right teams that wanted to make a splash. He had just had a career season leading the Yankees to their first pennant in 15 years; they had to bring him back. The Mets and Steve Cohen had the will and ability to drive the price to infinity. The Boston Red Sox were trying to regain some credibility after years of uncharacteristic austerity. The Toronto Blue Jays are stuck in competitive purgatory and have money to spend. And of course, the Dodgers could spend just about anything on anyone.

Compare that to the situation six years ago, when both Harper and Machado were free agents. The Mets were still owned by the Wilpons and weren’t serious about investing money in free agency. The Red Sox had just won the World Series and were looking to start trimming their payroll. The San Francisco Giants also took a step back after years of being in the top five in payroll. As much as they were spending at the time, the Dodgers preferred to use free agency to supplement a core built through the farm system and trades.

As a result, Harper signed with Philadelphia for a lower average annual value than expected, and Machado ended up with a team no one expected him to spend money on: San Diego.

Third, it’s hard to overstate how good Soto was before he turned 26 on October 25th. Since integration, only nine players aged 25 have recorded more wins as a replacement (according to Baseball Reference) than Soto, who ranks ahead of such luminaries as Willie Mays and Al Kaline at the same point in his career. Signing Soto doesn’t just mean he’s a superstar on the field; It probably means another plaque in Cooperstown with your logo, a chance at history with 500 home runs or 3,000 hits.

The Mets will pay $765 million for this.

(Top photo by Juan Soto: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)