The three biggest fantasy mismatches in Week 16 of the 2024 season

Allen is on the rise in the NFL MVP race. Allen, who just earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the third time this season, has donned his Superman cape to help the Bills reach new levels in 2024. And Allen heats up as the weather gets colder. Buffalo’s superstar QB leads the NFL with 6,937 offensive yards and 70 offensive TDs in December and January since 2020, 22 more points than any other player in the league during that period, according to Next Gen Stats. During these months he has also won 16 of his last 17 regular season games.

Allen, who seems to be making history every week, was unstoppable this month. Over the past four weeks, Allen has been the leading fantasy scorer overall, accounting for eight passing TDs, seven rushing TDs and one receiving TD while turning the ball over just once. His Bills have won eight of their last nine games and scored more than 30 points in eight consecutive meetings, tied for the longest single-season streak in NFL history.

His opponents in Week 16 didn’t have as much success. The Patriots, whom Allen has beaten in four of their last five meetings, are on a four-game losing streak and have given up 25 or more points in each of those losses. Allen has thrown a league-high 16 touchdowns while blitzing, and New England has allowed 13 passing touchdowns while blitzing (which is the most in the NFL). The truth is that Allen would run past – and through – any opponent he faces this week, but a favorable, familiar opponent keeps Buffalo’s Superman aiming high. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Allen blitzing through the air.)

Fantasy Outlook (by Matt Okada of NFL.com)

Allen has scored 40+ fantasy points in consecutive games and a whopping 145.56 points in his last four games – for reference: Drake Maye scored 149.82 points the whole season. Allen is the hottest fantasy player and probably the hottest we’ve seen since 2006, LaDainian Tomlinson. Meanwhile, the Patriots have allowed 21.9 fantasy points per game to QBs over the last month. The biggest threat to Allen’s fantasy line is the chance he’ll sit out until the third quarter, but you can still expect 25-30 points before he takes his spot.