The winter storm warning is also in effect for the Twin Cities on Thursday

We’re tracking our next snow machine’s journey toward Minnesota on Thursday.

This system looks well organized. A large sheet of snow will likely form across most of Minnesota on Thursday. Winter storm warnings have been issued for much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities region.

Including the cities of St. Cloud, Center City, Cambridge, Shakopee, Long Prairie, Minneapolis, Princeton, Alexandria, Chaska, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Monticello, Chanhassen, Hastings, Stillwater, St. Paul, Blaine, Mora, Little Falls and Victoria

11:00 PM CST Wed, December 18, 2024 …WINTER STORM

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 7 inches.

* WHERE…Parts of central, east-central and west-central Minnesota.

* WHEN… From midnight tonight to midnight CST Thursday evening.

* IMPACT… Travel could be very difficult. The dangerous conditions could impact commutes Thursday morning and evening.

Storm timing

Our incoming storm system is essentially an Alberta Clipper style storm. These typically move quickly from northwest to southeast through Minnesota.

Snow will fall in the Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota before midnight and then quickly spread east. Snow is expected to fall between 3 and 4 a.m. on Thursday.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3km model shows the system tracking southeast over Minnesota on Thursday.

Trust factor

Forecast models give us great confidence that this system will produce a broad band of significant snowfall north of the Twin Cities.

At the southern end of the storm, a likely dry period will result in a sharp decline in snowfall intensity and amounts near or south of the Twin Cities, making snowfall totals south of the Twin Cities less likely.

If the storm remains on the current forecast track, the Twin Cities will likely see several inches of snow suitable for plowing. If it moves just 30 miles north, less snow will fall, especially in the southern Twin Cities.

Snowfall totals

Given the potential changes to the predicted storm track noted above, here are the current snowfall estimates for the system on Thursday. Here is the latest version from NOAA:

Most forecast models place a strip of between 3 and 7 inches northward from the Twin Cities. Here is NOAA’s North American Mesoscale Model. Note the sharp break in snowfall south of the Twin Cities:

On the map below, NOAA’s Weather Research & Forecasting model provides a high-end snowfall solution of up to 10 inches in the Twin Cities!

Stay tuned as we update forecasts through Thursday.