There was at least one Cody Bellinger that the Cubs reportedly didn’t want to trade

Obligatory to reiterate: I stand by the view that it is a mistake to simply dump Cody Bellinger without REALLY reallocating those funds in a very impactful way and/or without REALLY achieving a meaningful return. But if the Cubs are “determined” to trade him no matter what, then I just have to hope the market stabilizes enough for them to get the best deal possible and not make a crappy deal.

With that in mind, I was heartened to read in Bob Nightengale’s recap today that there was at least one (in my opinion) highly undesirable trade that the Cubs apparently had no interest in making. Right after we talk about how much the Cubs want to trade Bellinger and how untradeable his contract is (It’s not that ridiculous – you saw the Tyler O’Neill deal, right?), Nightengale discusses Jordan Montgomery’s situation in Arizona. My emphasis:

“When your boss calls you one of the worst decisions of his baseball career and is upset that you backed out of your $22.5 million contract, you don’t need a therapist to know you’re not wanted. The Diamondbacks are shopping him everywhere. They tried to interest the Cubs in a trade for Bellinger. So far they are hitting“But given the skyrocketing pitching prices and the brilliance he showed on the Texas Rangers’ World Series championship team, there’s a better picture of blowing snow in Phoenix next summer than Montgomery in a D-Backs jersey.”

Bellinger will be owed $27.5 million in 2025, then either $25 million in 2026 or a $5 million buyout if he opts out. So the best case for an acquiring team is that it would pay $32.5 million for a very good year from Bellinger (i.e. he doesn’t waive it unless it’s a very good year), or 52, $5 million for any other set of results (which could include a decent year and a great year, just for illustration).

Montgomery is only owed $22.5 million for 2025, so a trade would save the Cubs $5 million for 2025 and between $5 million and $25 million the following year. It’s a significant financial difference, but it’s important to emphasize that the low end of the savings is potentially only $10 million, spread over two years.

Are these savings enough to actually trade these players? Looooooood no.

Consider that Bellinger has taken a step backwards in 2024. This looked like he was a good defender in all the outfield spots and at first base, who ran the bases well, who didn’t strike out, and who hit .266/.325/.426/109 wRC+ at age 28/29. He also posted a .282/.347/.451/117 wRC+ on the road, which is worth noting after a season in which Wrigley was particularly harsh against lefties.

When Montgomery took a step back in 2024, his age-31 season, it wasn’t just a slightly less good player situation. It was a unplayable Situation. His 6.23 ERA was literally the worst in all of baseball among pitchers who reached the 100-inning threshold.

The risk calculation on both sides of this equation is simply not nearly balanced. So a one-for-one trade would be an absolutely crazy way to save a little money without taking Bellinger’s actual value into account.

To be clear, on a super cheap one-year deal, I don’t think Jordan Montgomery is a bad chance for a bounce back. The real deal, in which the Diamondbacks eat up a lot of salary just to dump him, is a conversation worth having. The guy was consistently pretty good in the years leading up to 2024, and considering how messed up his offseason was and how poorly he started his time with Arizona, he’s probably a good candidate. Probably not for the Cubs, but for a team. If the Cubs hadn’t already signed Matthew Boyd, maybe I would be more interested? As it stands, I’m not sure they’re the best fit. Some team will want him.

HOWEVA, his value is not the same as Cody Bellinger’s, even with their current contracts. That’s just silly. And I’m glad to hear that as motivated as the Cubs seem to be about getting rid of Bellinger, they aren’t THAT desperate.