Trending 📉 📈 after NFL Week 15 when the Bills and Packers kick off

This article comes from Scoop City, The Athletic’s daily NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it straight to your inbox.

---

Today we’ll take a look at the latest on Patrick Mahomes’ ankle, Darnold’s improvement and tonight’s double hit. First, let’s quickly unpack a busy Sunday by taking a look at the rising stars:

---

📈 The trend is rising

The NFL MVP award is now a toss-up after Saquon Barkley’s quiet play (65 yards) likely ended his MVP candidacy.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen remains the frontrunner. His Bills (11-3) had 559 yards and six touchdowns in their 48-42 victory over the NFC-leading Lions (12-2). It was one of the best games of the year (we’ll talk about Dan Campbell’s onside kick decision tomorrow), with Allen’s EPA per play ranked in the 99th percentile.

There is no better quarterback right now than Allen, who has reached a new level in the last two weeks (704 passing yards, 10 total touchdowns and no turnovers). His teammates are in awe.

Still, there are good arguments for Jackson’s MVP candidacysince he won the direct duel and somehow has even better numbers:

Jackson also bolstered his performance yesterday, throwing more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (four) in a 35-14 blowout against the Giants (2-12).

But Jackson’s statistical advantage is shrinkingand victories matter to voters — perhaps even more than they should. Jackson trails Allen in this category. Looking at Allen’s most recent game and comparing Buffalo’s remaining schedule (Patriots x2, Jets) to that of the Ravens (Steelers, Texans, Browns), it looks like Allen will lose the MVP award.

Other climbers:

📈 Buccaneers (8-6). Their 40-17 road win over the Chargers (now 8-6) confirmed that Tampa Bay is the best contender for the dark side of the NFL. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans (159 yards and two touchdowns) formed the league’s best defense for over 500 yards. Remember: Tampa Bay also beat the Lions and Eagles and lost narrowly in overtime to the Chiefs (13-1).

📈 Eagles (12-2). Philly’s biggest weakness was addressed in its 10th straight win, as Jalen Hurts and the passing game responded with a season-high 290 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers’ vaunted defense. The Eagles, now tied with Detroit for the NFC lead, have a 40 percent chance of securing a first-round bye, according to the New York Times simulator.

📈 Shake your head. DeSean Jackson’s 1-yard line drop in 2009 comes to mind whenever another player inexplicably repeats the mistake, but the unforgivable has been happening since Steelers TE Dave Smith did something similar in 1971. Yesterday we saw two of them in one day!

The first drop changed the course of the Colts’ (6-8) season, as a Jonathan Taylor touchdown would have given Indy a 20-7 lead over the Broncos early in the third quarter. Instead, the piece hinted at the impending implosion:

In the fourth quarter, their disastrous trick play (while trailing 17-13) seemed to be the final nail. They lost 31-13 and their playoff odds fell to just 14 percent.

NIK BONITTO INTERCEPTS THE COLTS’ TRICK PLAY AND TAKES IT BACK FOR 6. WOW. pic.twitter.com/Ee3fsUl2iB

– Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 15, 2024

(Meanwhile, the Broncos (9-5) are on track for their first winning record since 2016 and are just one win away from securing a playoff spot.)

The second drop epitomized the Bengals defense as DB Jordan Battle ran for a walk-in touchdown before the ball rolled through the back of the end zone for a touchback.

Oh no Bengals 😳

A fumble through the back of the end zone gives Cincinnati a touchdown.

🎥 @NFLonFOXpic.twitter.com/wfp23p2ySY

– The Athlete (@TheAthletic) December 15, 2024

Cincinnati (6-8) survived that and the rest of the strangest game of the season, winning 37-27 over the Titans (3-11).

📈 Never list the Panthers (3-11) as favorites. Carolina was favored for the first time in two years and Bryce Young had four turnovers as the Cowboys (6-8) dominated and won 30-14.

📈 Texans (9-5). Their defense deserves credit for the 20-12 win over Miami (6-8), especially third-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who blocked Tyreek Hill (one catch on six targets in coverage) and had two interceptions, including in this game -clinch grabs.

STINGLEY AGAIN. HIS SECOND INT CALLS GAME. #MIAvsHOU pic.twitter.com/Hv7QYO4axE

– NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Houston’s win plus the Colts’ loss were enough to end the division race. The only remaining AFC division up for grabs is North, where the Steelers and Ravens face off next Saturday afternoon.

x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Won Division Title | * – Won Seed #1

📈 Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. It’s easy. Just give the Jets a weekly matchup against the worst pass defense. Yesterday, Jacksonville watched as Rodgers (289 yards and three TDs) and Adams (198 yards and two TDs) bought the starting role for 2025. Sauce Gardner’s first INT of the season secured a 32-25 win for the Jets (4-10).

📈 Injuries in Detroit. Their medical staff deserves a “Hard Knocks” series after adding star DT Alim McNeill (knee) and CB Carlton Davis (concussion) to a long list of defensive players unlikely to return this season.

📈 Despite the 20:19 victory over the Saints (5:9), there are plenty of them Questions in Washington (9-5).

📈 NFC West race. The Rams (8-6), Seahawks (8-6), Cardinals (7-7) and 49ers (6-8) make for the tightest division race. Only McVay’s Rams, who have won seven of their last nine games, are currently in the playoffs.

x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Won Division Title | * – Won Seed #1

As a gift from the scheduling gods, LA hosts Seattle in the regular season finale.

📈 Green Bay’s defense. Last year’s unit struggled to stop the run (28th in rushing yards allowed) and forced just 18 turnovers. Under new DC Jeff Hafley, they have fixed both; The Packers rank ninth in rushing yards allowed and are on pace to nearly double their takeaways (32). But yesterday’s win was all about their pass rush, which included seven sacks, 12 QB hits and a pressure rate of 45.2 as the Packers (now 10-4) harassed the Seahawks (8-6) in Seattle. Final result: 30-13.

📈 Worries in Kansas City (13-1). They eventually won a game by a normal margin, but the Chiefs’ 21-7 victory over the Browns was overshadowed by the departure of Patrick Mahomes. Dianna has the latest below.

---

What Dianna hears: Mahomes’ ankle will be tested soon enough

Patrick Mahomes limped to the sideline midway through the fourth quarter in Cleveland, and when the Chiefs offense returned to the field with just over five minutes left and a 14-point lead, Carson Wentz was behind center.

I was told Mahomes had a severe ankle sprain – the x-rays were negative. A team source believes he will be fine, but we’ll find out soon as Kansas City has two games in the next 10 days (against the Texans on Saturday and at Pittsburgh on Christmas the following Wednesday).

Mahomes’ late-game scramble was crucial for the Chiefs. Will this continue? We’ll see.

Back to you, Jacob.

---

CPOY 🏆: Or is it the most improved award?

Tonight, Sam Darnold begins his Week 15 matchup in Chicago and is ranked sixth in the NFL MVP voting. His biggest improvement might surprise you.

In previous years, he also would have been a stronger candidate for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. But after Damar Hamlin’s unprecedented return wasn’t enough to surpass Joe Flacco’s in 2023, the Associated Press – which has presented the award annually since 1998 – revealed that the spirit of the award is as follows:

“To honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that resulted in his inability to play the previous season.”

A quick look at history suggests that this policy could realign the award and exclude players like Darnold, since “seeing ghosts in 2019” likely doesn’t count as a pre-existing condition or physical injury.

The AP also cannot be sure that everyone is listening to his instructions. Sure, Joe Burrow – back from a serious injury – leads the BetMGM odds for CPOY, but Darnold is in second place, followed by Kyler Murray. Both finished last season healthy.

---

The doubleheader tonight

Bears (4-9) vs. Vikings (11-2). Minnesota debuts in beautiful Winter Warrior uniforms, has a six-game winning streak and is a seven-point favorite over the visiting Bears at 8 p.m. ET (ABC). It’s a battle between opposing teams as Chicago hasn’t won in over two months.

Falcons (6-7) vs. Raiders (2-11). Las Vegas will be without star DE Maxx Crosby, who will undergo season-ending ankle surgery. They also start former Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder and are expected to lose to Atlanta by 5.5 points. This game starts at 8:30 p.m. (ESPN).

---

📫 Did you enjoy this read? Sign up here to get the free daily NFL newsletter in your inbox Checkout The athlete‘s other newsletters.

(Photo: Luke Hales, Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)