Trey McBride, Hunter Henry and more

Matthew Freedman profiles his top tight ends in fantasy football in Week 16.

Week 16.

The wheat has been separated from the chaff. The cream has risen to the top. The beer is barrel aged. The cheese is moldy.

Actually, I’m not sure the latter is a good thing.

But you get the point.

In most fantasy leagues, only four teams remain in the playoffs.

We have reached the semi-finals.

The penultimate challenge to overcome on the way to a championship.

Whether you had a bye in Round 1, dominated your competition last week, or simply picked up a win to reach that all-important point, you’re here.

Everything becomes real here.

From now on there will be no more easy victories, no more weak duels and no more competitors.

In Week 16, only legitimate contenders for the crown remain.

The weather may be cold, but this is the season when the Sword of Victory is forged.

You’re in the fire now.

Now all you have to do is determine whether you are human… or a dragon.

Freedman’s favorites

Starting Tuesday evening, here’s a first look at my (for now) favorite fantasy pieces of week 16 – the guys who (in some combination)…

• Could be high in my fantasy rankings compared to industry consensus.
• Must be started in most seasonal leagues.
• Must be added if disclaimers are involved.
• Possess underestimated advantages.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Should be taken into account in daily fantasy.
• Create coveted dynasty acquisition targets.
• Belong to teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Stand out in ours Fantasy Life Player Props Tool.

Some common comments.

Updates: After submitting this post, any changes in my opinion will be taken into account my rankings And my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rating and ordering: All fantasy points are half PPR points unless otherwise noted. Players in separate sections are ranked in position approximately (but probably not exactly) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check the end of the article to see what abbreviations I might use.

Sports betting data: Odds are as of Tuesday, December 17th at 10:30 p.m. ET and are based on consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman’s favorites: Although we are publishing this article in four separate articles organized by position, I view it as a coherent whole and write it that way. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays in the other position previews.

Top tight ends for Week 16 Fantasy Football

Trey McBride (Cardinals) at Panthers

• Cardinals: -4.5
• O/U: 47
• TT: 25.75

Who do you want to be?

I want to be the complainant. I love complaining. It’s the best. Sometimes I just get up from my work chair, walk to a nearby mirror and stand there for hours, just looking at myself and complaining about everything that’s wrong with the world.

But I can’t in good conscience complain about McBride. In Week 9, he scored a 2-yard rushing TD. He has had double-digit goals in every game since the bye. And for this season he is the one #1 TE with a WOPR of 61%.

“WOPR” stands for “Weighted Opportunity Rating” and measures the overall quality of a player’s aerial role in their offense, taking into account their share of targets and aerial yards.

With this type of elite usage, a receiving TD will happen at some point. It almost happened last week when McBride was tackled at the 1-yard line on a play designed specifically to get him into the end zone. (My goodness.)

The Panthers are #2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.4). Why can’t this be the week McBride finally gets his first aerial shot of the year?

The hot route

Brenton Strange (Jaguars Pick’Em, TT: 19.75) at Raiders: No. 1 TE Evan Engram (Shoulder, IR) is out – as are WRs Christian Kirk (shoulder, IR) and Gabe Davis (Knee, IR) – and in Engram’s absence, Strange went 11-73-0 on 12 targets last week. The Raiders are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed for TEs (+4.0) and no SS Marcus Epps (Knee, IR).

Hunter Heinrich (Patriots +14, TT: 16.25) at Bills: Henry leads the Pats in targets (87), receptions (62) and receiving yards (635). That’s nothing. The bills could be without LB Matt Milano (groin), SS Damar Hamlin (back, ribs), FS Taylor Rapp (neck, shoulder) and backup S Cole Bishop (lower leg).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys +3.5, TT: 22.25) vs. Buccaneers: Ferguson has only given up 55 scoreless yards since returning from a concussion in Week 14, but his overall effort is encouraging (82% route rate, 17% target percentage). For the Bucs, SS Jordan Whitehead (Pectoral muscle, IR) is out and LB KJ Britt (Ankle), FS Antoine Winfield (knee) and backup S Mike Edwards (Thighs) are all uncertain after missing last week.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Overall (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success rate (SR)
• Percentage of Completion Above Expectations (CPOE)
• Defense Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Target Depth (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long descent and distance (LDD)
• Dropback over expected (DBOE)