close
close

Trump is expected to take office with a razor-thin GOP majority in the House of Representatives

Trump is expected to take office with a razor-thin GOP majority in the House of Representatives

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to take office in January with a razor-thin GOP majority in the House of Representatives, leaving Republicans little room for error.

Overnight Wednesday, one of two prominent races in California went Democratic, giving Adam Gray a lead of about 182 votes over GOP Rep. John Duarte in the 13th Congressional District in the inland San Joaquin Valley. In California’s 45th Congressional District, which covers Orange and Los Angeles counties, Democrat Derek Tran has a lead of about 600 votes over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel.

In Iowa, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won 800 votes in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, although a recount is unlikely to change the outcome in the battleground district. Miller-Meeks first won her seat in 2020 by six votes.

If those results hold, the House will start with a GOP majority of 220-215, even narrower than Congress’ current margin.

The US Capitol in Washington, November 24, 2024.

Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

However, the resignation of former Rep. Matt Gaetz brings the Republican ranks down to 219. Depending on the timing of the resignations of Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Mike Waltz, R-Fla., who joined the Trump administration as U.S. ambassadors will join the United Nations and national security, the number could fall further to 217 advisors or

That would bring the chamber to a 217-215 lead — giving Republicans no room for error since any tie vote would fail at 216-216.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has asked Trump not to recruit additional House members to his administration.

“It’s a big problem,” Johnson said on Fox News earlier this month. “We have a lot of wealth in the House Republican Congress. Lots of talented people who are very aligned with the America First agenda and can serve the country well in other capacities.”

“But I’ve already said enough to President Trump, give me some relief. I have to maintain this majority. And he understands that of course we talked about it almost hourly every day,” he added.

House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks at a House Republican press conference following their leadership meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington on November 13, 2024.

Nathan Howard/Reuters

Republicans are already dealing with chaos in the current Congress.

Groups of hardliners have grown just large enough to block votes on bills, measures that were once considered unrealistic in the halls of Congress. And it is unforgettable that the Republican divisions left the House without a speaker for days, both at the outset when Kevin McCarthy sought the necessary support and again after he gave up the gavel and members bickered for days before falling behind Johnson joined forces.

Heading into the current Congress, Republicans have tried to soften the deck a bit to try to prevent such public brawls in the future.

The US Capitol in Washington, November 24, 2024.

Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

Republicans agreed to increase the number of representatives needed to trigger a vote to remove a speaker from one to nine. In return, lawmakers who reject proposals to vote on bills will not face retaliation.

But with so little leeway, any Republican could throw the chamber into chaos and block passage of major bills along party lines.

One of the biggest legislative issues pending is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts that Trump pushed during his first term. They expire next year, and Republicans have hoped to extend them — but 12 Republicans in the House voted against the 2017 GOP tax law, which only passed thanks to a larger majority then.

When Republicans passed a rewrite of the tax law in 2017 during the first Trump administration, 12 Republicans in the House of Representatives – a larger majority at the time – voted against the bill but did not prevent its passage.

Republicans began the 118th Congress in 2023 with 222 seats — a 10-seat lead over Democrats’ 212 — a majority that spent weeks in the winter selecting a House speaker and part of the fall selecting a replacement.

Some illnesses, special election surprises or absences could also disrupt the Republicans’ careful balancing act.

In 1917, Republicans had the narrowest majority in history, 215 to 213, over Democrats. But according to Pew, a group of smaller party lawmakers worked with the minority to elect a speaker, handing the chamber to Democrats.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *