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UC San Diego vs UCSB Prediction and Tips

Posted on by Taylor Reeves
UC San Diego vs UCSB Prediction and Tips




The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (6-1) host the UC San Diego Tritons (6-2) on Thursday night in the Big West Conference opener for both teams. Last season, UC San Diego won both head-to-head matchups against the spread and straight-up teams.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close game as UC Santa Barbara was picked to finish second and UC San Diego was picked third in the preseason coaches poll.

Check out David Delano’s UC San Diego vs. UC Santa Barbara prediction before betting on this Big West showdown.

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UCSD earned a 76 point win!

According to KenPom, UC San Diego is ranked 97th nationally. The Tritons are balanced, ranking 103rd in defense and 104th in offensive rating, and they face the 238th ranked schedule. UCSD is on a four-game winning streak, including three wins as an underdog (La Salle 72-67, James Madison 73-67 and Toledo 80-45).

The Tritons are coming off a 109-33 win over the Division III La Verne Leopards. The game was almost a joke as UCSD led 50-8 at halftime (that’s not a typo!). Prior to the current winning streak, UCSD’s other wins this season were against Pepperdine (94-76) and Sacramento State (64-54). The two losses this season came in the opener against San Diego State 63-58 and on November 16th against Seattle 84-71.

The Tritons are led by guard duo Tyler McGhie (18.5 ppg) and Aniwaniwa (17 ppg). Three-point shooting is UCSD’s greatest strength, with the team ranking 95th in three-point percentage (36.7%) and 65th in threes made per game (10.4). The team features four players who have attempted more than 20 three-pointers this season and are shooting over 40% from distance.

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The gauchos led by live fire

The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos begin their conference opener rated 110th by KenPom. The Gauchos are stronger on offense, ranking 97th in efficiency and 142nd in defense.

The team has actually shot the three better than UC San Diego this season. UC Santa Barbara is ranked 30th nationally shooting 38.9% from three and is 33rd at 10.7 per game. The Gauchos have four double-digit scorers, led by Jason Fontent II (13.6 ppg) and the 6-foot-2 senior Kenny Pohto (11 ppg, 7 rpg).

Although the 6-1 record looks impressive, the strength of the Gaucho game plan is rated at #355 by KenPom. UCSB has beaten Fresno State 91-86 and San Jose State 64-59 this season, with the team’s only loss being 79-76 against UTEP. The Gauchos last took the floor the day after Thanksgiving, defeating Mississippi Valley State 81-48.

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Best bets for UC San Diego vs UCSB

Side bet for the entire game

Insider status:

Evaluation:

UC San Diego has a more impressive record this season, despite having one more loss than UC Santa Barbara. The Tritons led San Diego State (#36 KenPom) with less than six minutes to play in their opener and are now coming off three straight wins as underdogs, including a 35-point win over Toledo.

UC Santa Barbara hasn’t beaten a team ranked in KenPom’s top 220 this season and lost to a UTEP team ranked No. 171. I’ll take the underdog, the UC San Diego Tritons.

Prediction: UC San Diego +2.5

Overall selection for the entire game

Insider status:

Evaluation:

Even though both teams are capable of scoring the goals, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see both teams shooting below their season averages due to the increased defensive intensity of conference play. Even if teams shoot the ball well, possession will be crucial. Both teams play extremely slowly, with UC San Diego ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo and UC Santa Barbara ranking 305th. The over/under is a combined 4-9 in games involving these teams this season, and I expect another under here.

Prediction: Under 139

Author profile

David Delano, “David Delano”

David Delano is a graduate of Bowling Green State University with a passion for sports, travel and music. David enjoys handicapping in the MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, WNBA and is also a big fan of boxing and track and field. Over the years, David has taken on various roles in the sports world, from working behind the camera to writing, filming, editing, scouting and coaching, to serving his clients as a sports handicapper. He is also an experienced sports bettor. We are delighted to have David on our Winners & Whiners team and encourage you to join him every day.

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