UFC 310 Predictions – MMA Fights

If you need another example of how bulletproof the UFC has been in 2024, look no further than UFC 310.

Somehow the final pay-per-view of the year feels both thrown together and like an absolute blockbuster at the same time. No, we’re not getting Belal Muhammad’s long-awaited first title defense, but despite the welterweight champion’s exit, the matchmakers had already booked a second title fight that fit perfectly into the main event.

Alexandre Pantoja was the man far too often overlooked at 125 pounds, the lightest men’s division in the UFC. All Pantoja has done is knock out one ranking contender after another, showcasing his impeccable all-round game and securing a spot in the top five of our pound-for-pound rankings. And now he faces a challenger in debutant Kai Asakura who has everything to gain and nothing to lose.

The UFC even found a way to keep Mohammed’s opponent Shavkat Rakhmonov on the card by switching from a title fight to Ian Machado Garry, manifesting a rare fight of the undefeated that keeps the contender line in order regardless of who wins.

Add in former champions Ciryl Gane, Aljamain Sterling and Chris Weidman, as well as long-time contenders Movsar Evloev, Alexander Volkov, Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith, not to mention Straight Up Life stars Clay Guida and Michael Chiesa, and you have a recipe for an unforgettable end to the PPV calendar.

All that and we are blessed with a main card opener of Nate Landwehr-Doo Ho Choi (please sir, I want more!) and the return of Kron Gracie as he fights Bryce Mitchell. We’ve all been waiting for this, haven’t we?

What: UFC 310

Where: T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

When: Saturday December 7th. The five-fight preliminary card begins at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and FX. The five-fight main card begins at 10:00 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

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(The numbers in brackets indicate the status in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings And Pound-for-pound rankings)

Alexandre Pantoja (1, P4P-4) vs. Kai Asakura

Call me crazy, but I’m getting angry here.

I’m as much of an Alexandre Pantoja guy as anyone, to the point that I’d even give him a chance in a hypothetical Demetrious Johnson fight. That’s how highly I value his ability and his toughness. But styles make fights and on paper Kai Asakura has the style to beat Pantoja and become the UFC’s first Japanese champion.

Asakura towered over Pantoja on her faceoff and that will be a factor in the cage. He’s great at distance fighting, but also likes to mix it with close-up, violent Muay Thai elements. His last two wins have come by kneeling all the way to the breadbasket and it is this bodywork that could be his route to victory against the steel-chinned Pantoja. If you can’t hit them high, chop them down low.

A mixture of martial arts is likely to favor Pantoja. “The Cannibal” has top-notch grappling in addition to a hard-working striking style, and he has shown that he knows how to get a decision when the chance for a finish doesn’t present itself. However, it’s not that Asakura is sluggish on the ground, he just prefers to use his grappling skills to get the action back on track.

Five rounds gives Asakura plenty of time to find his rhythm and I think he does, picking up the pace from round 3 and showing everyone what all the hype is about. It’s almost 2025, let’s get crazy.

Asakura by KO/TKO in the fourth.

Choose: Asakura

Shavkat Rakhmonov (T2, P4P-18) vs. Ian Machado Garry (7)

I don’t feel quite as brave about calling for the co-main event.

Ian Machado Garry is a great talent and someone who could work his way to a title shot one day, but he’s no Shavkat Rakhmonov. The Kazakh star has a finishing instinct that few can match and it will come to the fore here. No matter how safe Garry tries to play it, Rakhmonov will close the distance and punch him in the face.

Rakhmonov’s willingness to take risks is both a great strength and a disadvantage for him, as he has taken his fair share of damage in fights before inevitably turning the tables on his opponents. He must decide early on whether Garry has the strength to blow him away or whether he is confident enough to engage Garry in a brawl. Either way, Rakhmonov has options.

Garry has often boasted about his grappling skills, and if there is any truth to these honest statements, this is his chance to back that statement up. At some point he will go bad, and it won’t just be about fighting for position, Rakhmonov will try to finish. He’s always trying to finish.

This all-out attack will wear Garry down until the Irishman runs out of options and Rakhmonov takes him out in round 2.

Choose: Rakhmonov

Ciryl Gane (6) vs. Alexander Volkov (3)

I’d really like to take a cue from Alexander Volkov here because I feel like his recent results reflect the significant improvements he’s made to his game. He’s 5-1 since losing to Gane, and while he’s getting closer to his 50th professional bout, he’s evolving and finding more effective ways to utilize that incredible size and reach. He has filled many defensive gaps in his game that may have led to disappointments against players like Sergei Pavlovich, Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the past.

In her first round, Ciryl Gane’s speed and athleticism were too great for Volkov to overcome in the long run, and Volkov fell in a five-round decision. This physical disparity has been Volkov’s Achilles heel, as his only loss in his last six fights has been to Tom Aspinall, another heavyweight plus athlete.

And that’s why I have to go with Gane to win this rematch because I’m not sure this fight will end all that differently than the first. Three years later, Gane is still one of the most agile heavyweights in the world and his movement can give anyone in the division a headache, including Volkov. The fight only being three rounds this time makes the contest even more exciting as Volkov only has to focus on winning a few rounds to get a decision rather than keeping up with Gane for 25 minutes, but I can see it not He had enough in his arsenal to put Gane at a disadvantage.

Gane again by decision.

Choose: Gane

Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie

This fight is ridiculous for so many reasons, not the least of which is the unique perspectives that Bryce Mitchell and Kron Gracie share every time they have a microphone in front of them.

Here’s how Jed Meshew put it in our UFC 310 roundtable:

Mitchell vs. Gracie is probably the most important fight of modern times. We revere the great men of history such as Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Marcus Aurelius because they were warrior poets and philosopher-kings. And the fight between Mitchell and Gracie may be the first time in history that two of these men have met in the octagon.

Secure.

Politics and conspiracy theories aside, this matchup is strangeMan. Mitchell is in the top 15 in the featherweight division and Gracie… just isn’t? When we last saw Gracie it had been almost 600 days and he wasn’t showing much, losing a terrible decision to Charles Jourdain. It seemed like this was the end of his MMA experiment, and honestly not too many people were demanding that he change his mind.

But here we’re dealing with a matchup that’s actually pretty good for Gracie if the cards are just right. Mitchell will try to deal with him at least once, and this one time might be all Gracie needs. As effective as Mitchell can be from top control, Gracie is just as dangerous on the ground, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he catches an assist on his back or simply sweeps away Mitchell. Then again, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Mitchell outplayed Gracie and held him for 15 minutes.

Then there’s a chance that these two decide to do three rounds of cardio kickboxing, which would be amazing in its own way.

Fuck it, I’m going out with a surprise surprise because that’s what this matchup deserves. Gracie by submission.

Choose: Gracie

Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi

The definition of a proper main card opening banger. We salute everyone who wants to rock (and rock).

This is usually the part where I say flip a coin and pick your winner based on that, because a slugfest is all but guaranteed, but I’m actually happy with Doo Ho Choi here. Nate Landwehr is perhaps the most exciting man on the planet, fight after fight, so it’s entirely possible that he’ll draw on the power of the Blood Gods and flatten Choi. I just like what I’ve seen from Choi since he’s been back.

“The Korean Superboy” is now a man who has grown into a body to match his amazing talents. I really believe he is a contender for the berth at featherweight, even though he is now well into his 30s and his physical and mental maturity will give him the edge come Saturday. Landwehr loves to hit and get hit, and it’s that last part that could get him in trouble.

Sure, Landwehr has a knack for comebacks, but if Choi hurts him, don’t expect him to let Landwehr off the hook. When the big hit comes, Choi will quickly follow suit and achieve the goal that will likely earn the UFC Hall of Fame Fight Wing member Performance of the Night honors.

Choose: Choi

Preliminary rounds

Dominick Reyes defeated. Anthony Smith

Themba Gorimbo defeated. Vicente Luque

Movsar Evloev (4) defeated. Aljamain Sterling (11)

Randy Brown defeated. Bryan Battle

Eryk Anders defeated. Chris Weidman

Joshua Van defeated. Cody Durden

Michael Chiesa defeated. Max Griffin

Clay Guida defeated. Chase Hooper

Kennedy Nzechukwu defeated. Lukasz Brzeski