Volaris cierra 2024 with less traffic, undervalued. . . But you recognized the market

Dec. 20 (axis of negotiations) – The industry in Mexico – at the global level – This is a year before the expected overhaul of the engines of the US manufacturer Pratt & Whitney, one of the most relevant suppliers for the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. The process implies staying in the centenary equipment area and requires an aircraft as an aircraft in medium turbulence.

For Volaris, the expected completion of this revision was written in a capacity contract that had to be transformed into a more powerful company to be rented with a strategy that did not only have a transition permit during this period until I sent it to the basics again had The trading plan for the future de la aerolínea de ultra low costo.

“Hey, I can confirm that I didn’t overpower the Desafíos alone. Hemos developed as a company. “I firmly believe that we had to confide in each other during the crisis, together with the evidence that we were both disciplined in the development of our plan, we have become a very active and separate person,” said Enrique Beltranena , general director and issuing president la aerolínea, a analysts and inversionists in October.

By the 11th month of 2024, Volaris passenger traffic reached 12.9%, other indicators highlighted the resilience of the aircraft. It is a case in which the total ingredients are on dates available to me in Asia (TRASM, in English), an indicator that allows controlling the efficiency of the aircraft to generate ingredients for capacity.

Volaris’ TRASM increased by 12% in the third quarter of the year compared to the third quarter of 2023, but not immediately, it increased by more than 15% compared to the overall comparison in the last September period.

Well, the supply of additional services for pasajeros – delivery of drinks and food, additional equipment and others – was also increased by 9.6% in the trimester comparison and 19% in the first months of the year. This is an increase of 9.3% in the tariff for the transition to the third trimester, and in the first half of the year it is 9.4%.

These numbers are very valuable for the resilience of the business on the part of the operator and do not reflect the bravery that the real market brings.

At the end of the operating report, the company’s bravery in the market was 16.8 pesos on December 17, about a third of 45 pesos achieved in September 2021, while the gaps allowed a level Global to lead to disaster Eye de Holidaymakers can go on holiday in their free time. This also includes Volaris accumulating a value of 61% for four months. According to Hub de Infosel, the return since this year has been 2.7%.

The following calculations from Infosel Analytics are based on the information in their last quarterly report, the value of the Volaris library increased to three million dollars or more than 79 million pesos. I contrast with the bravery I assigned to the company for sale on Wednesday December 16th Market capitalization The Volaris was 19 million 693.3 million pesos or 978.8 million dollars.

For the analysts, the market has taken stock of the Formula 1 government – a few months ago it was at 61% – the results of Volaris’ engine overhaul strategy were reflected in the third trimester when they The company has a comprehensive capacity reduction After predetermining a trimester, you need to think a lot about the effectiveness of the plan.

“It is the case, however, that today we have to reduce the price of the issue to the actual price,” said Alik García, subdirector of the analysis department at Valmex Casa de Bolsa, in a telephone conversation. “In particular, we were very pleased, we believe that they have good ground rules, good prospects and good prospects, and we are sure that at the end of this evaluation period the market will be responsible for this issue.”

Algunos múltiplos and cuenta de ello. The price/exploitation, the actual indication, a big thing that we discuss with the payment of the reversal through the company’s actual ganancias, in the case of Volaris it is 5.13 until the end of the month until the company reaches the maximum In five years it is 13.95 days, now with the data from the Hub de Infosel.

Well, the approval of Facset – which is considering 14 pocket houses – is a target price of 24.10 pesos for the promotion, 42.7% more than the price on December 16, since the stance was “bought”. .

The specialists take into account that the next trimesters represent a panorama most suitable for the issue. An example of this is the gradual restoration of road traffic, which in November – reported last year – was a charge of 6%, which was of great importance for the first number 16 in a row, that is, at the end of the last 12 meses. Also, this week I received the first air traffic controller focused on rework, contributing 3.7% for sole capacity.

Para Intercam Casa de Bolsa, ello perfila a cuarto trimestre de buen de empeño, gracias a minor costos de flammbar ya the recoveryación de transporto de viajeros debido a la temporary vacacional de dicembre.

“Hacia adelante, mantenemos a positive outlook on the issue, responds to signs of recovery and capacity for next year and a solid ejection in márgenes de profitability, prioridad que the administrative ha enfatizado,” wrote a reporter Guillermo Quechol, analyst at Intercam Casa de Bolsa.

The Volaris have been updated to adjust their earnings forecast for 2024 with a reduction in total capacity of 13% and a higher value compared to the previously estimated floor of 14%, as well as an operating attrition margin of 36% overall compared with the pronóstico before Entry 32 years 34%. In addition, until last year Aerolinea charged a 7% fee on its capacity as its operating costs totaled 9.6 cents per year.

Including the factors that are traditionally a reto for the Aerolineas, Volaris ya tomó medidas, ya que aprovechà the caída en the precios de flammable registrada in September à la sur coberturas tácticas para mes de temporada alta que noviembre a enero del Next year, up to 30% of your project’s total consumption for this period.

The company’s guidelines also envisage optimism about the recovery of its capacity for the coming year, with a forecast of 15% for the first half of 2025, a theme related to the development of the engine revision.

“Reconozco that the market will be able to look at next year’s capacity and clean it up if the engines are actually checked before inspection. “However, are we sure that we will not lose too much capacity because the emerging markets can multiply and absorb,” said Beltranena, speaking to analysts and inversionists.

However, market concerns about Volaris are not limited to the possibility of exceeding capacity. To reach the international market on the routes with the most rental properties, reduce your position on the domestic market routes. In November, traffic on domestic trips reached a decrease of 17.1%, while the number of international pasajeros increased by 1.6% in the same period.

The airport, which hosts its operations center at Guadalajara Airport, also includes traffic with local passengers. Last October, 16.8 million kilometers were traveled, which cost even more low cost Viva Aerobus, which has been traveling for 19.2 million passengers.

AeroMéxico, its traditional air service, is on the Tercer site, with 14.2 million, according to data from the Agencia Federal de Aviación Civil (AFAC).

Además, the Margenes de profitability of the aircraft, which have benefited from the prioritization of the international routes, have also carried out a moderation in the trimesters before Venir, it is likely that the Equipos are integrated into their fleet, during Sean’s revision to the Cubrir Algunas has returned The national routes must be time-limited.

Other factors need to be taken into account as they will be damaged before next year due to the climate and nature of climate change as they affect gases and gases that are flammable. “This is an effect of change that could lead to success in 2025,” said the Valmex analyst.

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Volaris responded a year ago by redesigning the P&W engines for efficiency and profitability