Walker Buehler brings risk and leadership to the Red Sox (5 thoughts) | Chris Cotillo

The Red Sox did some last-minute Christmas shopping on Monday, agreeing to sign two-time All-Star Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million contract. With the additions of Garrett Crochet and Buehler – as well as rehabilitated left guard Patrick Sandoval – Boston has significantly reshaped its rotation so far this month and will enter 2025 with a different-looking group than the one that largely exceeded expectations in 2024.

Here are five thoughts on the Buehler Amendment:

1. Buehler, like Crochet, involves risk – but in an opposite way

Every pitching addition carries risk, no matter what a team is giving up, and that’s certainly the case with both Crochet, who needed four prospects to land him, and Buehler, who received a quality one-year deal. Injuries have been part of both pitchers’ stories. But the Red Sox are betting on two different types of upside here.

The 25-year-old Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022, was absolutely dominant again in his first year as a starter, and is on the rise to becoming perhaps one of the best pitchers in all of baseball despite a very small sample size of success (only 146 innings, all in 2024). Buehler, 30, has a winning record — he’s a two-time All-Star and World Series champion with 122 starts since 2017 — but returned from a two-year layoff from Tommy John and had poor pitching ( 5.38 ERA, 1.553). WHIP in 16 starts) for the Dodgers in the regular season last year. While his postseason performance was encouraging, alarm bells were ringing for him before October, forcing him to sign a one-year deal as a free agent despite his previous accolades.

So the Red Sox get Crochet on the upswing, at the peak of his value, and Buehler on the downswing, near his trough. These are two different bets in which Boston hopes for the same result.

In a pitching market where certainty reigns – Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Luis Castillo were all Red Sox targets with fairly high floors – Boston instead landed two players with extreme upside but also some risk.

2. It’s hard to see another addition to the now crowded, intense rotation mix

The Red Sox now have a strong rotation mix that includes the two rookies (Crochet and Buehler), the three homegrown right-handers (Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford) and a rehab veteran who is expected to play a big role in 2025 ( Lucas Giolito). ) plus three optional depth pieces (Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priest). That’s six proven big league starters, plus three insurance options, and Garrett Whitlock (seems to be eligible for the bullpen at this point), Hunter Dobbins (who will start at Triple-A), or Sandoval (who will be out for at least the first half). are not even included (he is still doing rehab).

It’s a group that suddenly has quite a bit of depth and talent, significantly more so than in 2024, with Nick Pivetta being taken away the most. Crochet is the clear No. 1, Buehler has played like an ace in the past, and Houck, Giolito and Bello all have the potential to be at the top of the team. And now, with Buehler in tow, it’s pretty hard to imagine the Red Sox continuing to grow despite still having free agents (Burnes, Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Heaney) and trade candidates (Castillo, Jared Jones, Dylan Cease). are available. If there’s a move that involves the starting group, it could be a creative trade for someone like Crawford, but there’s nothing to suggest Craig Breslow is interested in doing anything other than stockpiling weapons.

(The Roki-Sasaki sweepstakes is a whole different game, and a surprising Red Sox success there would of course change things significantly. It is currently unknown whether or not Boston was granted a meeting with Sasaki.)

Look no further than the start of last season to see the importance of having far more than five available arms in your rotation mix on Opening Day. By mid-April, the Red Sox had already lost Giolito for their season, Pivetta and Bello for short stints, and Whitlock for a longer stint. A group that looked deep in March had to rely on Criswell for 18 starts and James Paxton for a pre-injury cameo before the trade deadline. The Dodgers had eight pitchers make more than ten starts in 2024. This is exactly how the game is played now.

3. Buehler adds that leadership — and a winning pedigree — was lacking in the rotation

Crochet, Houck, Bello and Crawford have never started a postseason game. Giolito has struck out twice, in the Wild Card round in 2020 and in the ALDS in 2021. Buehler has 18 playoff starts, a 3.04 October ERA over 94 ⅔ innings and threw just the last pitch to close out a World Series at Yankee Stadium. That’s no small feat for a Red Sox team looking to return to the playoffs and needing a horse that has been there and done that.

It’s clear that the Red Sox lacked leadership in key areas last season, as injuries to Giolito and Story early in the year took the wind out of the sails of the expected order in the clubhouse. Buehler and Giolito, who will celebrate their 31st birthdays two weeks apart in late July, are expected to set the tone for the rotation in a way no one has done since Nate Eovaldi’s departure after the 2022 season.

4. Buehler’s deal isn’t a mega deal, but it’s still a big market move (and a decent deal)

Yes, the Yankees gave Fried $218 million and the Dodgers gave Blake Snell a five-year, $182 million contract. Other free agent starters like Eovaldi and Sean Manaea (3 years, $75 million each), Yusei Kikuchi (3 years, $63 million) and Luis Severino (3 years, $67 million) got good paid. Burnes is also likely to surpass the $200 million mark.

But the Buehler expansion is still a big hit in the market, with a price tag of $21.05 million. As of now, he will be the team’s third-highest paid player next year behind Rafael Devers and Story. Most teams are not willing to sign a free agent for a year at this relatively high price. The Red Sox haven’t behaved like the Red Sox in years, but the fact that they’re willing to do so is a good sign.

The $21.05 million value is no coincidence. It is the exact value of this year’s qualifying offer, which the Dodgers did not extend to Buehler. So the Red Sox won’t give up a draft pick to sign him, but will likely get one back if Pivetta – who by all accounts is a worse pitcher – signs elsewhere. In that regard, it’s good business from Breslow.

5. With four pitchers added, the focus can now shift to adding a hitter

Breslow was serious when he said he would look to add quality pitching this winter. His first five big league moves of the winter (we’re not counting backup catcher Carlos Narvaez) were all weapons players like Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. There is still room for a large bullpen addition. But the most pressing priority now is right-handed pop.

Even after committing about $46 million to the newly added players, the Red Sox are estimated to have around $216 million to $217 million in guaranteed salaries in 2025, putting them $24 million to $25 million short the competitive balance tax threshold of US$241 million (which they have set). I said they are willing to do more. There’s plenty of room to sign someone like Teoscar Hernández, who remains a perfect fit, or win the bidding war for Alex Bregman, who likely won’t return to Houston. Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar and Randal Grichuk also remain free agents.

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