Washington Men’s Basketball vs. USC: Game Preview and How to Watch

How to watch (and bet)

Date: Saturday, July 12, 24

Tip time: 3:00 p.m. PT

TV: Big Ten Network

radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting line: Washington Huskies -7

USC Trojans 2024-25 Stats:

Record: 5-4 (0-1)

Points per game: 71.9 ppg (196.)

Counterpoints per game: 71.7 ppg (155.)

Adjusted offensive efficiency: 108.2 (122.)

Adjusted defense efficiency: 103.0 (114.)

Strength of Schedule: 171

USC key players:

G- Saint Thomas, Sr. 6’7, 220: 7.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.6 apg, 34.2% FG, 24.1% 3pt, 50.0% FT

The man who shares his name with a Caribbean island began his career at Loyola Chicago but blossomed into an all-around star for Northern Colorado last year, averaging 19.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game scored. The transition to the top has been a bit bumpy so far. Unsurprisingly, his numbers are consistently worse except for his assist rate. He’s still a very good defensive rebounder, but the point forward experiment doesn’t quite work.

G-Desmond Claude, Jr. 6’6, 205: 12.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.3 apg, 48.2% FG, 28.6% 3pt, 66.7% FT

Claude transferred from Xavier, where he was also a one-man offense and averaged 16.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. The only thing he couldn’t do at Xavier was hit over 30% on 3-point attempts, and that’s still true. He’s fairly adept at drawing fouls and is a good passer for an average 6’1″ player, but he’s still not a natural point guard. He took 20 shots and had 6 turnovers against Oregon a few days ago.

G-Terrance Williams, Sr. 6’7, 225: 10.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 0.9 apg, 51.1% FG, 36.0% 3pt, 81.0% FT

Williams is one of the few transfers for USC to post nearly identical numbers to last year. At Michigan a season ago, he shot nearly 40% from deep and is a touch below that, but was much more efficient near the rim, shooting nearly 70% on 2-point shots. Williams is definitely not a passer, but he has been USC’s most efficient offensive option so far, even though he ranks 8th on the team in percentage of shots taken.

F- Chibuzo Agbo, So. 6’7, 225: 12.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 36.6% FG, 33.9% 3pt, 90.9% FT

Boise State relied heavily on Agbo to reach the NCAA Tournament last year, when he averaged 13.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on 41% 3-point shooting. His outside shooting has dipped a bit so far, but overall Agbo has done close to what he expected. Against Oregon he was just 3/11 from the field, but 10/10 from the FT line, matching his career best of 91% when fouled.

C-Josh Cohen Sr. 6’10, 220: 11.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 66.7% FG, 20.0% 3pt, 75.0% FT

We’ll get more into USC’s roster makeup in a moment, but Cohen is the only true center on the roster. The problem is that he is a terrible rebounder and his numbers are well below what they were at previous stops at UMass or St. Francis PA. If he beats Great Oobor twice for defensive rebounds, that would be a surprise. The plus for Cohen is that he is an efficient post scorer and can definitely demonstrate a wide range of moves from deep to get the ball to the basket. However, he doesn’t do much else.

The view

If you’ve forgotten to wear your contact lenses, you might think that not much has changed since last year. Washington plays USC. Seems normal. Will Conroy and Quincy Pondexter are on the sidelines at Hec Ed. That works. Franck Kepnang is out due to a knee injury. That seems correct. Both teams have a losing record in conference play with rosters full of transfers. Totally normal.

But then you realize that Conroy and Pondexter are on the USC bench, the Pac-12 logo has been replaced with a Big Ten logo, and the coaching duel is Danny Sprinkle versus Eric Musselman.

USC took an even more dramatic approach to rebuilding its roster than the Huskies. Every single scholarship player is new to the roster and none of them followed Arkansas’ Eric Musselman, so they’re all really brand new. Former Husky Wesley Yates followed the two former Husky assistants (including Yates’ cousin Quincy Pondexter), but of course Yates did not appear for UW last year due to injury and therefore will make his Hec Ed debut for the Trojans.

The transition was not smooth for USC. About six years ago, Eric Musselman put together a squad that would have made the nerds drool. 10 of their 11 leaders are between 6’4 and 6’10 in minutes played. This is a team of versatile wingers, which in theory should allow them to switch things up on defense and create mismatches on offense.

The problem is that it didn’t work out that way for several reasons. The only thing close to a true center on the roster is Massachusetts transfer Josh Cohen, who has put up basically the same numbers as Wilhelm Breidenbach, except Cohen has about three times as many shot attempts when he’s on the floor. There is no true rebounder/shot blocker on the USC roster and they play with a small ball lineup every time Cohen sits.

The way to compensate for being short is to shoot better than your opponent, but that has been a failure so far. Eight different Trojans have attempted at least four three-pointers, and only two of them have a hit rate above 28%, while none are above 36%. They still shoot better than Washington from distance, but only just.

Washington has tried to make up for the lack of shooting by moving the ball forward and getting to the free throw line as often as possible, but that is not USC’s strength. They’re above average in that regard, but that’s not a real strength like the Huskies are. The lack of size in the middle also means they have a lot of trouble on offense and have poor rebounding on both sides.

They really are two very similar teams. Both rank in the top 50 in D-1 total experience but in the bottom 50 in minutes continuity as they brought in a number of new transfers following a coaching change. Neither team shoots the ball well from outside and relies on their 2-point shooting, meaning they rank in the bottom 30 in percentage of points scored from 3-point shots.

The Trojans played a slightly more demanding schedule and that didn’t help. USC is 5-0 against teams ranked 185th or worse in KenPom and 0-4 against teams ranked better than that. Earlier this week, they led most of the home game against Oregon but still lost by 8 points. They also lost to California at home and were beaten by 35 points in a neutral-site game against Saint Mary’s.

There is no “must win” this early in the season. Especially not for a team with the expectations that Washington has. But for now, the Huskies haven’t done anything to hurt their resume. Their two losses have come by margins of about 10 points against teams projected to reach the NCAA Tournament. According to KenPom, this is the easiest conference game they have faced this season.

If there is any hope of escaping the Big Ten’s bottom teams and pushing for an at-large NCAA bid if Kepnang gets healthy and Dominique Diomande can qualify, then this has to be a win.

forecast

Washington Huskies– 68, USC Trojans – 64