Weakness is a Provocation – by Jonathan V. Last

Normally this newsletter is closed to Bulwark+ members, but today we’re making it free for everyone. This matter is as serious as a heart attack and most people are not prepared for what is coming.

Because this isn’t about ABC News. It’s about power, weakness and Trump 2028.

Buckle up. –JVL

Nobody cares about media reports, but the weekend’s announcement that ABC News has decided to settle Donald Trump’s weak libel lawsuit for $15 million is a big deal.

(1) ABC News did not reach an agreement. Disney did it.

I don’t have any inside information, but a decision of this magnitude was almost certainly not made by Almin Karamehmedovic, the president of ABC News. It probably wasn’t created by his boss, Debra O’Connell, who runs the news group for Disney Entertainment Networks.

I bet that Bob Iger – the CEO of Disney and one of the most important corporate executives in America – made the final decision to settle with Trump. Because it is a decision that affects the entire company’s relationship with the federal government.

And while it may be against ABC News’ interest to sell out its journalists, it is certainly in the Walt Disney Company’s interest to be on good terms with a president who is open to punishing his enemies and rewarding his friends.

(2) All American companies make peace.

We talked about Trump Tribute/protection racket extortion last week and how Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg did everything right with Big Orange. Add Disney to the list. This is an important development since Bezos and Zuckerberg are founder/owners. They have huge personal stakes in their companies and therefore stand to lose a lot.

But Iger is just a normal CEO. That means: He is a wage worker. Sure, Bob Iger is well compensated for his work, but he doesn’t “own” Disney. And if even everyday CEOs like Iger – who have much less to lose than founders – come to terms with Trump, then all will fall in line.

(3) The media has already capitulated.

Over there Los Angeles Times is the billionaire owner open his put Thumbs on the scale to make the newspaper more hospitable to Trump. Authors and editors on Washington Post Are running for leaving Bezos as the new Trump-friendly publisher makes out. Time The magazine named Trump “Man of the Year” and the magazine’s owner said that Trump’s election represents “a promising time” for America and that “we look forward to working together.”

Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski presented themselves to Trump’s court to reset their relationship and then discovered a delicate sensitivity regarding on-air criticism of Trump Cabinet nominees.

And now Disney has brought ABC News to its knees, advising everyone in its news department that if they make enemies with Trump’s world, they won’t be supported by corporations.

What will surrender look like in the future? Mainstream news outlets won’t piss off Trump. The surrender will look more like this:

(1) They will try to buy protection by using Trump favorites. That’s what the L.A. Times made by bring in Scott Jennings. Media companies hope that by paying people who have access to Trump, they can convince Trump to leave them alone.

(2) They will reduce the platforming of Trump critics who are in DGAF mode. Instead, they prefer tame critics who stay within the realm of normal Kabuki theater.

(3) You will start leaving things unsaid.

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Let me explain how media organizations think.

They know lawsuits are coming. There are two ways to defend against lawfare. (1) Stay under the radar so the litigation affects someone else. (2) Reduce the size of your target.

The second option is to be extremely careful about what you say. You can’t stop a bad actor from filing a lawsuit for frivolous libel or slander. However, they can make it more difficult to enforce the claim.

For example: I can write that public figure X is an asshole, or say that he is a Nazi. These are insults covered by the First Amendment.

Things get more difficult if I say that public figure X is an alcoholic or a rapist. Because now we’re talking about relatable descriptions specificlegally defined behaviors.

In theory, public figure X could argue the following:

• My description is not true.

• I knew The description was incorrect and was nevertheless made with malicious intent. And the most important thing:

• The publication of this description resulted in material damage to public figure X.

In newsrooms across America today, journalists talk to lawyers and make lists of words and phrases that might be more actionable than others and create those words and phrases forbidden.

Behind all these maneuvers by billionaires, CEOs and institutions is the belief that Donald Trump will soon disappear. He’s a lame duckJeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg and Bob Iger say to each other. All we have to do is keep our heads down for four years and it will all be over.

And maybe that’s true. It is probably TRUE.

But that’s not it surely TRUE.

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I want Democratic senators to play a game here once the confirmation hearings begin.

A Democratic senator should ask every single Trump appointee: “Could Donald Trump run for president or vice president in 2028?” Just a simple yes or no answer, please. Is it possible?”

What percentage of potential Trump appointees do you think would be willing to say publicly and in black and white that Trump absolutely cannot run in 2028 under any circumstances?

I think the answer is somewhere in the range of 0.00 percent.

That’s not normal. If you had asked a Bush or Obama candidate that question in 2005 or 2013, he would have laughed, shook his head and said, “Of course not.” And neither Bush nor Obama would have cared that they said it.

That such a response would be unthinkable for a Trump appointee in 2025 underscores how far we have already come down this path.

We’ve seen this dynamic time and time again.

Trump is suggesting something outrageous. The Republicans initially play coy. Then they say it probably won’t happen. Then they say we have to let “the process” happen. And at some point the Republicans get to the point where they insist on this once outrageous thing that they obviously didn’t even want to comment on must happen.

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And here we come to the big takeaway:

The people who preemptively capitulate believe they can do so safely because Trump will leave of his own free will. What they don’t understand is that their capitulation increases the likelihood that he will try to stay in office indefinitely.

Why?

Because weakness is a provocation.

Gentle men like Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and Bob Iger don’t understand this.

A man like Donald Trump does it.

I think that often The bulwarkDonald Trump’s great comparative advantage is that we always knew what kind of man Donald Trump was. This is why some people over the years have called us alarmists. I think we have proven ourselves to be clear-sighted and persistent.

Over the next four years, the cause of liberalism will rely much more on small media organizations like… The bulwarkbecause corporate-owned media will not have the freedom to report on Trump’s authoritarian attempts the way they want.

We are preparing for this work and can only do so because we have direct support from our readers.

If you have the opportunity to support us, we will need it. This is the fight of our lives.

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One more thing about the asymmetry of Trump’s libel lawsuit against ABC News.

The “Biden crime family” is regularly mentioned on Fox News broadcasts. A guest on Newsmax called President Joe Biden – who has never been convicted of a crime – the “head of the Biden crime family.”

In May 2020 Donald Trump Jr. written an Instagram post with a picture of Biden saying, “See you later, alligator,” next to a picture of an alligator saying, “In a while, pedophile.”

On September 15, 2020, Donald Trump himself insinuated that Joe Biden was a pedophile, Retweet a post with the hashtag “#PedoBiden.”

Joe Biden has not filed any defamation lawsuits against the Trumps father and children.

We have created a playing field where the forces of MAGA can slander, slander and defame with near impunity – what is QAnon but an elaborate case of slander? Speech.

The sooner we recognize this asymmetry and take it seriously, the sooner we can do something about it.