Weather forecast for New Orleans: Chance of severe tornadoes

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a severe weather forecast for portions of our region on Saturday. The WDSU First Warning Weather Team has identified Saturday as a weather warning day for the threat of severe storms. A round of severe storms moved through early Friday morning, including a confirmed tornado in St. Tammany Parish between Audubon and Talisheek. Saturday is the most likely chance of possible severe weather, with parts of the North Coast already below level 3 out of 5, or an increased risk of severe storms with the risk of severe winds in excess of 58 mph, large hail measuring 1 inch or more. and possible tornadoes. Note that the New Orleans metropolitan area is below Category 2 out of 5, meaning low risk of possible severe weather, while the coast is below Level 1, meaning storms. In these scenarios, the worst storms are likely to occur well north of us in northern Louisiana and Mississippi. However, it is likely that the storms will flare up on the North Coast first and then move into Mississippi, creating a short window of time during which storms could quickly reach severe levels and potentially spawn a tornado or two. The latest data shows the main group of storms will reach the north coast after 6pm, posing the greatest risk of severe weather. These storms are forecast to move southeast and could impact coastal New Orleans metro late Saturday night. The main risk for severe weather will be locally heavy rain, followed by strong winds in excess of 58 mph, then large hail measuring 1 inch or larger and a few tornadoes. The biggest takeaway is that the North Coast has the greatest chance for severe weather on Saturday. I expect numerous strong to severe storms and the risk of tornadoes is increased for us. Right now it looks like most of the South Coast south of I-10 is least at risk of strong to severe storms. However, everyone will need to closely monitor this evolving forecast in case the location and timing of storms change.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a severe weather forecast for portions of our region on Saturday. The WDSU First Warning Weather Team has identified Saturday as weather ALARM day for the risk of severe storms.

A round of severe storms moved through early Friday morning, including a confirmed tornado in St. Tammany Parish between Audubon and Talisheek.

Saturday is the most likely chance of possible severe weather, with parts of the North Coast already below level 3 out of 5, or an increased risk of severe storms with the risk of severe winds in excess of 58 mph, large hail measuring 1 inch or more. and possible tornadoes.

Note that the New Orleans metropolitan area is below Category 2 out of 5, meaning low risk of possible severe weather, while the coast is below Level 1, meaning low risk of severe storms.

In these scenarios, the worst storms are likely to occur well north of us in northern Louisiana and Mississippi. However, on the North Coast, storms are likely to flare up first and then move into Mississippi, creating a short window of opportunity in which storms can quickly reach severe proportions and potentially produce a tornado or two.

The latest data shows it is after 6pm when the main group of storms will reach the north coast and pose the greatest risk of severe weather.

These storms are expected to move southeast and could impact the New Orleans metro late Saturday evening.

The greatest risk of severe weather is locally heavy rain, followed by strong winds exceeding 90 km/h, followed by large hail measuring at least 2.5 cm and a few tornadoes.

The biggest takeaway is that the North Coast has the highest chance of severe weather on Saturday. I expect numerous strong to severe storms and the risk of tornadoes is increased for us.

Right now it looks like most of the South Coast south of I-10 is least at risk of strong to severe storms. However, everyone will need to closely monitor this evolving forecast in case the location and timing of storms change.