Week 15 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can do it in different ways. Are you paying for one of the top cleats or are you trying to save some money with a budget option? Are you eating the chalk or looking for a cost-effective option with benefits? There is no 100%, one-size-fits-all answer, so each list and each type of contest needs careful thought and consideration.

In this article, I highlight quarterbacks that stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, particularly our FantasyLabs player models. Although the models were developed for DFS competitions, this is a general purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news emerges throughout the week and we adjust our forecasts (assisted by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our player models will change as forecasts change. For updates visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer, which allows you to easily create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to build your lineups by hand.

Finally, be sure to check out all of the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s are included with a FantasyLabs subscription) in FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the opportunity to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ on our marketplace. Predictions from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you are a subscriber to these specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate forecasts:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Kyler Murray ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

The Cardinals were coming off a loss to the Seahawks last week, but Murray was still just barely able to provide value to fantasy players. He earned 19.96 DraftKings points, which was just enough to pay off his $6,000 salary.

Murray remained affordable in Week 15, and this week his matchup is much friendlier. The Seahawks weren’t a bad game, but the Patriots are undoubtedly better. They are 31st in pass defense (EPA), which is only better than the Jaguars. They haven’t been quite as bad as opposing quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points allowed, but Murray still has a respectable +0.9 opponent plus/minus.

Nevertheless, the main thing here is the price. Murray is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in football who can use his arms and legs to score points. In 23 previous appearances, he had a comparable salary and an average plus/minus of +1.57 (according to the trends tool). If we reduce the sample to just games in which Murray is the home favorite – like he is against the Patriots – his average is 24.31 DraftKings points and a plus/minus of +5.35. Overall, this is simply too cheap for a player who brings some of the fastest talent in the league at this position.

Justin Herbert ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Herbert doesn’t do nearly as much with his legs as Murray does, and his fantasy production has been up and down all season. The Chargers began the year as one of the most run-heavy teams in football, posting a -4% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE). Herbert was terrible in those contests, scoring 13.68 DraftKings points or fewer in each one.

Since then, the Chargers have undergone somewhat of a schematic shift. In the next six games, the team posted a DBOE of +3% and had a positive mark in five out of six games. Herbert’s fantasy production increased significantly and he finished with at least 17.62 DraftKings points in all six contests. He posted a positive plus/minus in four of them, including games with 24.06 and 25.38 DraftKings points.

In the last two games, the Chargers’ DBOE is back down to +1%, and last week they underperformed in a really slow game against the Chiefs. Herbert fell to 7.98 and 13.72 DraftKings points, so it’s unclear what version we’ll see against the Buccaneers.

The good news is that the matchup is extremely favorable. Tampa Bay has been torn apart by opposing quarterbacks all season long, giving the position the third-most fantasy points per game. Ladd McConkey could also return to the lineup after missing the team’s last game; He is officially listed as questionable but has played six consecutive limited practices.

If Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman allow Herbert to go public, he has the potential to be a big hit at this spot. The team is currently projected to score 24.25 points, and while that number isn’t great, it represents a solid improvement over their regular season average (21.3).

Herbert ultimately ranks second in Projected DraftKings Plus/Minus at the position, behind only Murray.

Now available: Our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator, which uses the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Joe Burrow ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

If the Bengals had a better defense — and therefore won more games — Burrow would be in the running for MVP. That’s how good his season is. He leads the league in completions, attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns and is the No. 3 quarterback in fantasy points per game. Only Josh Allen And Lamar Jackson were better and both bring significantly more rushing upfield.

Even though he doesn’t pose much of a threat with his legs, Burrow is under serious pressure. He has posted a positive plus/minus in five straight games, including four games with at least 28.56 DraftKings points. He has had at least three touchdown passes in five straight appearances and has surpassed 300 yards in four of them.

Why is Burrow currently expected to own less than 5% of DraftKings? That makes absolutely no sense to me in a matchup against the Titans. Tennessee isn’t an ideal opponent, but they’re far from unbeatable: They rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Ultimately, Burrow appears in Sim Labs’ optimal lineup simulations with the second-highest frequency on DraftKings. He falls to No. 3 on FanDuel, but his optimal rate is still well above his projected ownership. There’s no reason to shy away from him now.

Josh Allen ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)

While Burrow has been playing extremely well lately, Allen’s performance on Sunday against the Rams was on a whole other level. Ultimately he gave it up greatest fantasy performance by every quarterback in the Football Reference database, which dates back to 1950.

Allen had a great day as a passer, finishing the game with 342 yards and three touchdowns, but ultimately it was his legs that put him over the top. He added 82 rushing yards and three touchdowns, bringing his final tally to 54.88 DraftKings points. We may never see a performance like this again.

It was the first time Allen scored 30 DraftKings points since Week 3, but he has been a consistent performer all season. He only has three games with fewer than 20.2 DraftKings points, giving him an elite combination of floor and ceiling.

Allen faces a tough test this week against the Lions, but there are expected to be plenty of points in this game. It tops the list with an impressive overall score of 54.5 points. Allen will also take the field as an outside hitter, and unlike most quarterbacks, this tends to be his best distribution. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Allen has averaged 27.89 DraftKings points and a plus/minus of +4.07 in scoring points.

Ultimately, no one can reach his ceiling at the position, and he has the highest optimal lineup rate as a quarterback on FanDuel.

Aaron Rodgers ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

Things didn’t go the way Rodgers and the Jets had hoped this season. He was supposed to be the savior of the franchise, but he missed all but four games in his first year after injuring his Achilles tendon. He’s just 3-10 this season, and he hardly resembles the guy who won four MVP awards with the Packers.

However, he only has $5,400 left on DraftKings and had one of his best games of the year last week against the Dolphins. He finished the game with 339 yards and a touchdown, recording a positive plus/minus for the third time this year.

If he can do that against the Dolphins, there’s no reason why he can’t do the same against the Jaguars. Jacksonville didn’t just have the worst pass defense in football this season. They did this by a ridiculous margin and rank last in EPA per game. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and the only reason they’re not higher is because opposing offenses don’t actually have to throw the ball for four quarters.

If Rodgers has anything left in the tank, he should put numbers here.

Contrasting NFL DFS tournament options with advantage

Drake Maye ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

Maye didn’t put up outstanding numbers for the Patriots, but he far exceeded expectations as a rookie. He was also a solid source of fantasy value, posting a positive plus/minus in six of eight games on FanDuel. He brings a solid rushing performance to the table, averaging 38.3 yards per game and has had at least 59 yards in two of his last five appearances.

Maye will be easily overlooked off the field against the Cardinals. It’s a solid matchup – Arizona is 19th in dropback EPA – and the fact that you can escape Boston’s cold weather and stay comfortable in Arizona is another plus. Ultimately, only Burrow on DraftKings has a larger discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Don’t look now, but here comes Tua. He has posted a positive plus/minus in four straight games and has posted at least 26.54 DraftKings points in three straight games. The Dolphins still have some of the most dangerous pass catchers in the game, and Jonnu Smith’s breakout makes them look even scarier.

Despite his recent performance, Tagovailoa is still at just $6,100 on DraftKings for this week’s matchup against the Texans. It’s on the road – where Tagovailoa has been worse in the past – but playing in the dome in Houston isn’t the same as going outdoors in bad weather. His DraftKings price tag boasts a 99% Bargain rating, making him one of the best pure values ​​of the week.

CJ Stroud ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

On the other side of this matchup, Stroud also has some buy-low appeal. The Texans’ offense was a major disappointment for most of the year. That was partly to be expected Nico Collins was missing due to injury, but things haven’t looked much better since his return. Ultimately, Stroud posted a negative plus/minus in nine straight games.

That doesn’t sound great, but it’s still Stroud we’re talking about. He’s had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, so he could turn things around at any moment. There are some hidden benefits to this game against the Dolphins and Texans, and Stroud is another player who is expected to see fewer possessions than his optimal lineup suggests.