Week 17 NFL Player Props: What Can Brown Do for You?

Welcome to the final part of my weekly NFL player props column for the 2024 season. I came off a winning season two weeks ago and need to hit two out of three this week to end up exactly 60 percent for the year. Hopefully that means I’ve helped some of you along the way. Let’s wrap up with three of my favorite NFL player props of Week 17. As always, these numbers and prices are subject to change. Make sure you shop around to maximize your profits and minimize your losses.

NFL Week 17 Player Props

Chase Brown OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Fanatics)

Chase Brown has been one of the most productive running backs this season. Since suffering a season-ending injury in Week 8, Zack Moss has been a textbook example of the back. Since Moss’ injury, Brown has recorded at least 20 touches in six of seven games. Much of that work was done as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Brown has averaged 4.9 receptions and 39.3 receiving yards in those seven contests. He has at least 30 yards in five of seven games. I expect more of the same on Saturday when the Bengals host the Denver Broncos. Brown’s receiving yards are among my favorite NFL player props of Week 17.

Denver enters Saturday’s game with the sixth-best pass defense based on DVOA. However, they only rank 30th in passing against opposing running backs. The Broncos lead the NFL in pressure and sack rate. Against Denver, the teams managed to offset Denver’s pass rush with quick throws to the running backs. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is no longer at 100 percent due to wrist and knee injuries. Cincinnati would be wise to plan a few quick passes to Brown to quickly get the ball out of Burrow’s hands. This matchup ensures Brown provides plenty of receiving production. You can play Brown to get at least 25 receiving yards for -130 on ESPNBet. I’ll risk the hook and play Brown to end up with at least 26 yards at a much more pleasant price.

Anthony Richardson UNDER 26.5 pass attempts (-114, FanDuel)

What’s better than sweating it out by betting on an under? Well, probably a lot of things. But I’m willing to accept this problem for several reasons. Let’s start with Indianapolis’ offense. The Colts don’t want Anthony Richardson throwing the ball very often. In five games since returning to the starting lineup, Richardson has thrown the ball 81 times in the first three quarters. He threw the ball 50 times in the fourth quarter of those five games. Richardson’s passing attempts depended heavily on the play’s script. That’s important because Indianapolis is a 7.5-point favorite against the New York Giants, the worst team in the NFL. If this game goes according to plan, the Colts will let Jonathan Taylor do most of the heavy lifting.

Richardson is also battling back and foot injuries ahead of this week’s match. The Colts are optimistic he will play. However, Richardson could be limited in this game. Richardson’s injuries will likely limit his options in the running game, but could also impact his passing abilities. Depending on Saturday’s results, the Colts could also be eliminated from the AFC playoff slate before playing on Sunday. If they’re not in the playoffs, they might not want Richardson overdoing it in a meaningless game. The expected game script is the main reason I like this game, but having extra outs always helps. I’m picking Anthony Richardson, who recorded fewer than 26.5 pass attempts in this game.

Brock Purdy 250+ passing yards (-118, BetRivers)

Brock Purdy is averaging 249 yards per game this season. Based on that, it would make sense for sportsbooks to release his Week 17 pass line right around that mark. However, they do not take into account some factors that we can use to our advantage. The first is Purdy’s Week 17 matchup with the Detroit Lions. Detroit has the most explosive offense in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. They are also dealing with a variety of injuries on defense. Both issues have led to the Lions allowing a lot of pass production in recent weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 290 yards and 8.71 yards per attempt in Detroit’s last four games.

Although Purdy’s mileage has fluctuated recently, the poor weather was largely to blame. San Francisco played in a blizzard against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Purdy threw for just 94 yards in the loss, while MVP front-runner Josh Allen finished with just 148. The 49ers were back at home in Week 15, but heavy rain prevented Purdy from getting into the passing game. He finished the game with just 142 passing yards, while his counterpart, Matthew Stafford, had 160 yards. Taking those two games out of the equation, Purdy is averaging 270.9 passing yards and has exceeded that number in eight of 12 games. This number should be closer to 275 than 250, so I like to take the lower number if the price is neutral.

Be sure to check out all of our Week 17 fantasy football rankings and analysis!