What is the most likely path for the Chiefs to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have both secured their spots in the postseason, but the race for the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC — and the home-field advantage that comes with it — isn’t over yet.

While the Chiefs (11-1) hold the conference’s best record, the Bills (10-2), who beat Kansas City in Week 11, are hot on the heels of the reigning Super Bowl champions.

According to Pro Football Network’s win probability charts, Buffalo has an 18% chance of winning and securing first place, compared to a 7.5% chance for Kansas City.

The Bills’ most likely outcome – at 23% – would be a loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 15.

The Chiefs’ win probability is currently lowest in Weeks 17 and 18, where they have a 50.7% and 49.3% chance of winning, respectively.

Overall, Kansas City has a 7.5% chance of winning or remaining 4-1 in their last five games.

Check out the full win probability tables for the Chiefs and Bills below:

Kansas City is the favorite in all but the last two games, where it currently has odds of 50-50. Therefore, the Chiefs’ most likely path to the No. 1 seed will involve a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers or Denver Broncos in Weeks 17 and 18, respectively, and a Buffalo loss to Detroit in Week 15.

Should Kansas City and the Bills finish the regular season with the same record, Buffalo would earn the No. 1 seed based on its head-to-head win over the Chiefs.

This article originally appeared on Chiefs Wire: What is the most likely path for the Chiefs to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed?