What QB could do as a free agent in 2025

The Minnesota Vikings made two quarterback moves in the 2024 NFL offseason to restock their room following the departure of Kirk Cousins.

What drew the most attention was the team’s decision to draft Michigan starter JJ McCarthy with the 10th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The biggest contributor to Minnesota’s outstanding season was the signing of Sam Darnold.

The Vikings signed Darnold to a short-term contract in the offseason that many expected would make him the team’s bridge quarterback. After selecting McCarthy, many wondered exactly how long Darnold would be the team’s starter – if he even started in 2024.

A preseason knee injury to McCarthy ensured that Darnold would be the team’s No. 1 quarterback. He has thrived in that role and appears to have finally unlocked the talent that made him the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft while operating in Kevin O’Connell’s system.

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Darnold is scheduled to be a free agent again after the end of the 2024 NFL season. What deal will he get on the open market? USA TODAY evaluates its future earnings while looking at the evolving middle class of quarterbacks in the NFL.

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Sam Darnold contract details

Darnold signed a one-year contract with the Vikings in free agency. Below are the terms and conditions according to Spotrac.com.

Expression: 1 year
Total value: $10 million
Average Annual Value (AAV): $10 million
Guaranteed money: $8.75 million

Darnold’s contract also includes four void years, reducing his maximum salary to $5 million in 2024. He will count $5 million against the Vikings’ salary cap in 2025 even if he does not return to the team due to this accounting mechanism.

Darnold’s contract ranks 21st among quarterbacks in the AAV and 37th overall. Based on his play in 2024, he should be due a significant raise.

Statistics by Sam Darnold

Darnold was a top-10 NFL quarterback in 2024 by most metrics. Below is a look at his stats and where they compare to the rest of the NFL heading into Week 15.

Completion percentage: 68.4% (7th)
Farms passing by: 3,299 (6th)
Passing TDs: 28 (T-3.)
INTs: 10 (T-6.)
yards/attempt: 8.5 (4th)
Passerby rating: 108.1 (3rd)
QBR: 59.0 (15.)
PFF class: 86.4 (6th out of 40 qualified QBs)

Darnold also ranked sixth in MVP odds in Week 15, according to BetMGM Sportsbook odds. This will only further justify that the former No. 3 overall pick deserves a lucrative contract extension.

The only question is how much of a raise he will get.

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Sam Darnold contract projection

As good as Darnold was in 2024, it’s hard to imagine him getting a top deal. Even though he had a great season, it was one that loomed large over his NFL career and his fourth franchise.

Therefore, any team that signs Darnold will want to make sure they are protected from potential regression. That increases the likelihood of Darnold signing a short-term deal, a prospect he should be open to as it would give the 27-year-old another chance to make money should he continue to progress into the prime of his career.

With that in mind, there are two contracts that Darnold could base his potential deal on. The first is his best comparison, Baker Mayfield.

Like Darnold, Mayfield was one of the top players in the 2018 NFL Draft class, failed with the team that drafted him, and ultimately failed with the Carolina Panthers. Mayfield had to go to his fourth franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to find his success, and he parlayed his one-year trial into a three-year deal worth up to $100 million.

Below are the terms of Mayfield’s contract in Tampa Bay:

Baker Mayfield contract details

Expression: 3 years
Total value: $100 million
Average Annual Value (AAV): $33.33 million
Guaranteed money: $50 million

It’s easy to imagine Darnold making a deal like this, especially if the Vikings continue to have interest in him. A three-year deal like this would allow Minnesota to continue working with Darnold while continuing to develop McCarthy to eventually take the starting job in an Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love-type situation.

The other deal that should interest Darnold and his agent is Geno Smith is three years old Deal with the Seattle Seahawks during the 2023 offseason. Smith was a journeyman (and former New York Jets quarterback) before breaking out with Seattle and establishing himself as a quality starter.

Below is a look at the details of Smith’s contract:

Geno Smith contract details

Expression: 3 years
Total value: $75 million
Average Annual Value (AAV): $25 million
Guaranteed money: $40 million

The main difference with Smith is that he didn’t have the same upside as Darnold. Smith began his age-32 season when the Seahawks selected him as the starter and traded Russell Wilson. Darnold will begin his season at age 28, so the four-year break should allow him to get something closer to Mayfield’s deal – if not a little more expensive, given the ever-growing nature of the NFL’s quarterback market.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Darnold receive a deal worth $110 million over three years. That would be slightly more expensive than his estimated Spotrac market value of $35.7 million. Still, it likely accurately reflects how a potential bidding war, however small, could drive up its costs.

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Below is a prediction of what Darnold’s next contract could look like:

Sam Darnold contract projection

Expression: 3 years
Total value: $110 million
Average Annual Value (AAV): $36.7 million
Guaranteed money: $55 million

Perhaps Darnold’s value will exceed this if he has a lot of suitors, such as the Vikings, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, among others. However, he could also see his overall value decline if teams with the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft decide to forego free-agent quarterbacks and instead turn to players like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Regardless, Darnold’s skillset will likely be in demand in some capacity this offseason. Whether he plays for the Vikings or moves on to a fifth different NFL team, he’ll be making money after the best season of his career.

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