What’s next with the labor dispute at Starbucks?

A one-day holiday strike against Starbucks ended Tuesday with the largest walkout ever staged by the company’s unionized workers. These were strikes at more than 300 stores in dozens of cities across the country, said the Starbucks Workers United union.

“The company should be worried because this is just the beginning,” Michelle Eisen, a Starbucks barista in Buffalo, New York and a member of the union’s bargaining team, told ABC News.

The union and the company still do not have a collective agreement in the organized stores. Months of negotiations recently broke down over disagreements over economic issues, including possible wage increases.

As the workers fold up their posters and return to work, the question arises: What happens next?

Labor experts who spoke to ABC News said the unrest among workers could lead to a resumption of negotiations and an eventual contract agreement as both sides find a reason to resolve the standoff.

However, if an agreement is not reached, workers could escalate their resistance to the company through further strikes or other pressure tactics, experts said. The company could also move to a more adversarial approach, walking away from the bargaining table and cracking down on unionization, the experts added.

The recent strike has broken a period of relative calm between Starbucks and the union.

Starbucks Workers United and Starbucks announced in February that they were working on a “basic framework” to reach a collective bargaining agreement for unionized stores. The union says Starbucks failed to present a viable proposal on economic issues and also challenges the company’s alleged refusal to resolve federal allegations of illegal anti-union behavior.

Workers United told ABC News in a statement that Starbucks has proposed no immediate wage increases for most baristas and a guarantee of only 1.5% wage increases in future years.

Meanwhile, Starbucks said in a statement that the union has proposed an immediate 64% minimum wage increase for hourly partners, as well as a 77% overall increase over the life of a three-year contract. “This is not sustainable,” a Starbucks spokesperson told ABC News.

Starbucks United disputes those numbers as a disingenuous characterization of its proposal, the union told ABC News.

“We’re at a point in the negotiations where we need to remind Starbucks who we are,” Eisen said, citing the publicity and strength of workers shown by the recent strike.

Starbucks did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment.

Starbucks Executive Vice President and Chief Partner Officer Sara Kelly downplayed the impact of the strikes in a public letter to employees late Monday.

“The vast majority of Starbucks stores across the country have opened as planned and are busy with customers enjoying the holidays,” Kelly said, noting that the company operates 10,000 stores nationwide and employs 200,000 people.

“The union decided last week to withdraw from collective bargaining,” Kelly said. “We stand ready to continue negotiations when the union comes back to the bargaining table.”

The show of strength from workers could lead to a better deal from Starbucks as the company may recognize the public relations threat posed by the prospect of more headline-grabbing labor protests, some experts said.

“Starbucks has to constantly look at attracting a new generation of customers to its product,” Matthew Bodie, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who focuses on labor issues, told ABC News, citing the company’s liberal reputation Company. open-minded employer.

Still, federal labor law gives a company wide latitude to delay a collective bargaining agreement and lacks the steep penalties required to enforce an agreement, giving Starbucks significant leverage over the next step in the labor dispute, Bodie added.

“The traditional management principle is fight, fight, fight,” Bodie said. “I see it largely as a Starbucks decision because our system gives companies so much power and discretion in managing collective bargaining.”

If Starbucks abandons a new proposal, the union could move to a more militant strategy similar to the campaign’s previous approach, experts say.

In 2022 and 2023, the company’s Starbucks workers staged about 100 strikes per year, Johnnie Kallas, a labor relations professor at the University of Illinois who tracks strike activity, told ABC News. The latest holiday strike represents the first work stoppage of 2024 as the union moved to a more cooperative approach to negotiations, Kallas said.

“If Starbucks does not negotiate meaningfully on economic proposals, militancy will increase,” Kallas said. “The workers could reach a fork in the road.”

Meanwhile, the company could also opt for a more controversial approach, experts said. Negotiations this year reflected a friendlier public stance from Starbucks. Just last year, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said he didn’t believe unions had a place in the company.

The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the federal agency that enforces labor rules, is expected to be more sympathetic to management under President-elect Donald Trump, experts said. Starbucks could move toward an increasingly hostile approach, knowing it is unlikely to face much resistance from the NLRB, the experts added.

“If it remains a private negotiation between Starbucks and the union, it could go nowhere under Trump,” John Logan, a professor of U.S. labor history at San Francisco State University, told ABC News.

For now, says Eisen, the union members are planning to take some rest over the holidays and consider the way forward. However, there is no doubt that the union plans to continue organizing new business, Eisen said.

Workers United organized more than 150 stores in 2024, bringing the total number of unionized stores to approximately 540.

“You always want your movement to grow,” Eisen said. “The bigger we are, the stronger we are.”