Where I want to buy Nvidia shares next

Blackwell is the word for Nvidia as the AI ​​leader heads into 2025, with multiple configurations and a mid-year upgrade (B300/GB300) for its new powerful GPU set to ramp up significantly over the next few quarters. As was reiterated to I/O Fund premium members following its third quarter earnings report, I/O Fund is tracking several supply chain signals that suggest Blackwell sales are tracking the GPU sales we have seen over the years 2023 and 2024 will probably be far exceeded combined – to give Nvidia $200 billion in data center revenue.

Analysts are already increasing their forecasts for Blackwell shipments for the fourth and first quarters, with forecasts for 250,000 to 300,000 shipments in the fourth quarter nearly tripling to 750,000 to 800,000 in the first quarter. This compares to previous views, which saw shipments rise to 550,000 in the fourth quarter from 150,000 to 200,000 units in the first quarter. This suggests Blackwell’s first-quarter revenue estimates are already rising 40-60%, potentially leading to positive revenue revisions later in the year as it becomes Nvidia’s flagship GPU product.

Nvidia is getting a tailwind in 2025 from Blackwell’s increased pricing power, production and delivery estimates are already rising before the ramp begins, AI investments are still growing rapidly, and GPU clusters are starting in the 100,000 range where Hopper has peaked, even as competition from AMD, Broadcom and others begins to increase.

Nvidia is also benefiting from the end of its fiscal year early next year, as the Street looks ahead to 2026 numbers – which could well be too low given the signals Blackwell is already giving. Right now, Nvidia is trading at just 30 times estimated 2026 earnings of $4.43, its lowest net valuation since its share price was $95 in May 2024 – and Blackwell still has the potential to increase quarterly revenue in the same way as Hopper and achieve margins again to reach Hopper’s heights.

The bigger picture for Nvidia’s future is that Blackwell has the potential to eclipse Hopper, and the I/O plans to keep its members informed about Nvidia’s future with regular updates. With this in mind, the I/O Fund sees the following for the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.

Technical data from Nvidia: The prospects are even higher

Nvidia appears to be preparing for the next surge. As long as further weakness remains above $116, this move should target a level between $165 and $173, with the potential to reach as high as $193.

If this momentum is confirmed, it would probably be the final 5^Th Wave in the historic uptrend that began in October 2022. That doesn’t mean that the specs don’t support significantly higher prices, it just means that Nvidia will first have to absorb a significant price and timing correction before reaching those levels.

The pattern from the October 2022 low developed as a classic 5-wave pattern. At the beginning of 2024, the price rose vertically. This was accompanied by maximum volume and peak momentum. This is the standard pattern from 3^approx waves, and it is typically the strongest part of a 5 wave pattern. From a sentiment perspective, this is the part of the trend where everyone immediately recognizes the direction of the trend. Shorts cover at the same time as purchasing the quantity, creating the standard pattern in 3^approx Waves.

This would mean that the correction was the 4 in June 2024^Th wave, and that this is probably in the last 5^Th wave higher. The mood pattern in 5^Th Waves are reaching new price highs, although with less momentum and volume, which is the case currently.

Zoom to 4th^Th The wave correction that began in June 2024 provides a better idea of ​​the two possible paths I am currently pursuing.

· Blue – The last 5^Th The wave plays out as a finishing diagonal pattern, which is common for 5^Th Waves. This type of pattern is a 5-wave pattern characterized by large fluctuations in both directions. Our target zone for the low point of this 4^Th The shaft costs $126 to $116. If Nvidia can break through the $140.75 mark, the chances are good for this scenario.

· Red – Nvidia is in a much more complex 4^Th Wave. Should this play out, NVDA would see a break above $116, opening the door to a potential low at $101, $90, or $78.

A final point worth noting is the performance of the overall semiconductor sector compared to the S&P 500. Semiconductors tend to be much more sensitive to consumers and the economy than most sectors. For this reason, during periods of economic recovery, semiconductors tend to come out ahead and outperform the broader market.

However, when this sector begins to move against the broader market, it tends to be a warning that volatility is ahead. In fact, every time the semiconductor sector hit a lower peak while the broader market hit a higher peak – i.e.

This pattern can be traced back to 2000 and continues to indicate weakness. This is currently one of the largest and longest periods of divergence between the semiconductor sector and the broader market on record.

If the broader semiconductor sector remains below its July 2024 peak, I would consider this a warning. That doesn’t mean I don’t see potential for an upside, it just means that any long positions the I/O fund takes have strict targets where we take profits and stops to protect ourselves if the market turns against us.

Diploma

Make no mistake, Nvidia is the best stock of the decade, and it’s only been four years. The I/O Fund has an aggressive buying plan at key levels should the stock decline, and we have a backup plan should the stock outperform the competition. The pressure we feel from the semiconductor industry and a significant breakthrough.

Nvidia has been our largest position over the last 4 years. I/O Fund has sent out nine buy alerts to our readers to buy this position below $20 in 2021-2022. The I/O Fund believes the future is bright for Nvidia and believes the potential next momentum is worth betting on. However, despite all the warning signs, any new long position is subject to strict risk controls until those warnings are reset.

The I/O Fund also closely analyzes the supply chain to identify overlooked beneficiaries of AI infrastructure expansion and shares this information, as well as potential buying and selling plans and real-time trading alerts, with Premium Members. The I/O fund recently saw two separate beneficiaries with gains of 23% and 17% since November. Find out more here.

I/O Fund portfolio manager Knox Ridley and I/O Fund equity analyst Damien Robbins contributed to this report.

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