White Christmas: The hope of snow could be dashed for millions of people in the USA

CNN
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Christmas is approaching almost as quickly as Santa’s sleigh, but almost everyone in the United States dreaming of a cinematic white Christmas may have to keep dreaming.

Initial forecasts suggest that temperatures on Christmas Day could be a maximum of around 10 to 15 degrees above normal in large parts of the country. For many, it’s a forecast reminiscent of last Christmas, which came amid the warmest winter on record in the United States.

But in the run-up to the big day, the country could be split in two by heat and cold. According to the Climate Prediction Center, the western half of the US – including Alaska and Hawaii – will experience unseasonably warm conditions, while the eastern half will be fairly cold through Christmas.

For example, high temperatures in Washington, D.C., may not climb above freezing next Sunday through Tuesday, but could climb to the more typical 40s on Dec. 25, which also marks the start of Hanukkah this year.

Although it could be cold in the East, it is expected to be much drier than normal from next weekend through the holidays, conditions that should prevail across much of the Lower 48, according to the center. This is bad news for snow lovers.

It’s still too early to say exactly which areas will be dry or experience storms, so some white Christmas dreams could remain alive until the weather forecast comes into full focus.

Some wet weather could impact parts of the East on Christmas Day. Initial forecasts suggest a potentially patchy mix of rain and snow could impact high-altitude areas in the northeast. This Christmas, a few snowflakes could flutter over a few places in the Rocky Mountains.

None of these scenarios are guaranteed beyond a week out, and minor changes in weather patterns over the next week could alter the forecast.

There must be at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25th for it to be considered a white Christmas. It doesn’t necessarily have to fall on the same day.

If a few gusts of wind fly through the air, but they melt when they come into contact with the ground, it’s unfortunately not a white Christmas. But if there are still piles of snow on the ground after several major lake effect events even though it isn’t actively snowing on Christmas – winner! This is a white Christmas.

The mountains to the west, parts of Michigan and New York, and northern New England are likely to have enough snow now that at least an inch of it will remain until Christmas Day.

The number of places in the U.S. where a white Christmas is possible is limited, even with perfectly average temperatures this year.

North-central states like the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as mountainous parts of the West and Northeast, are most likely to have a white Christmas each year.

That’s because it’s usually pretty cold in the northern United States until the end of December. The cold helps Prevent snow from melting caused by fast-moving storms, typical of the region in late fall or early winter.

Multiple rounds of snow tend to build up a decent snowpack in the mountains of the west and northeast by the end of December, but sometimes this snowpack is only found at the highest elevations where not many people live.

If you want a white Christmas in an urban setting, historically your best bets are Minneapolis, with about a 70% chance, and Burlington, Vermont, with about a 60-65% chance.

The Chicago area has about a 35% to 40% chance of having a white Christmas each year, while New York City and Philadelphia have a miserable 10% to 15% chance.

Chicago and Minneapolis last had a white Christmas in 2022, but New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC have not experienced one since 2009.

In Atlanta and much of the South, the chance of having a white Christmas is about 1% or less.

CNN meteorologists Monica Garrett and Derek Van Dam contributed to this report.