Will there be a white Christmas in New England this year? 3 chances of snow forecast

BOSTON – Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? I think most people would agree that a little snow on Christmas morning adds to the mood, as long as it doesn’t interfere with the walk to grandma’s house.

So what are our chances this year? Let’s start by defining exactly what a “white Christmas” is.

What is a white Christmas?

The National Weather Service states that to qualify for a white Christmas, there must be at least 1 inch of snow on the ground (where you live) by 7 a.m. on Christmas morning. Yes, that is a bit arbitrary and “made up”. “But for the purposes of this blog, let’s move on.

Seems easy enough, right? As it turns out, it’s getting harder and harder to have even an inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.

In Boston it has only happened twice since 2000, the last time being 15 years ago! You may remember that we had a decent little snowstorm on Christmas Day 2017, but that 2.9 inches fell AFTER 7 a.m. in Boston.

If you look closely at climatology and compile the last 100+ years of data, you get a very colorful map:

Not surprisingly, the further north and west you live, the higher your chances are. For example, while in Boston the probability of a white Christmas is between 10 and 25%, in Worcester the probability is between 40 and 50% and in Fitchburg it is between 50 and 60%.

Again, if you just looked at the last 20-25 years, these numbers would be MUCH lower. With a week to go, here’s a look at our current snow depth.

Very unimaginative due to several rains in the last few weeks.

I see three chances for snow in the next seven days.

#1: Wednesday evening

This is mostly a rainstorm in southern New England. The only chance of snow is at the highest elevations, especially Vermont and New Hampshire.

Not to mention, anything clinging to the ground in southern New England would be gone within 24 hours on Thursday, thanks to a sunny day in the 40s.

#2: Friday evening-Saturday

This one had potential a few days ago, but the chances seem to be decreasing with each model run.

On Friday a storm thunderstorm with light snow will approach our area from the west. However, as this storm approaches New England, it will transfer its energy to an offshore storm several hundred miles out to sea.

The offshore storm will become a very strong storm this weekend, but not until it reaches well beyond our latitude and near Nova Scotia.

In the best case scenario, it seems that there will be light snow on Friday evening, with occasional light layers forming.

#3: Christmas Eve

At the buzzer there is one last chance for an Ave Maria. A very weak disturbance will emerge from the Great Lakes next Tuesday and sweep through New England sometime between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

While the chances of an inch of snow falling just in time are slim, it COULD at least result in some mood swings in the air during Santa’s ride or on Christmas Day!

White Christmas opportunities

All in all, here are the WBZ weather team’s predicted chances for a white Christmas…

In Boston, near the coast and in southeastern Massachusetts, the chances are very slim (but not zero!)

So you’re saying there’s a chance. As altitude increases and in areas far north and west the probabilities increase a bit, but even there I wouldn’t bet on it.

We will continue to look for snow and keep you updated on any forecast changes on WBZ-TV and CBSBoston.com