Will there be a white Christmas in Pittsburgh? This is how the forecast develops

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – If you’re looking for a white Christmas, the large-scale weather pattern may not work in Pittsburgh’s favor this year.

There was a brief thaw earlier this week following a short-lived cold snap last week. Colder air will return to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region next weekend. A large trough or depression in the jet stream results in a surge of Arctic air pushing south into our region.

It will not be extremely or dangerously cold because the air mass will change or lose its original potency as it loses latitude as it moves south. Nevertheless, we expect maximum temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees below average for Saturday, Sunday and Monday next week.

The warm-up comes at Christmas

Just in time for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the large-scale weather pattern is expected to shift across the country. The general consensus among model guidelines is that the deep cold air channel from the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast will be uplifted and replaced by a more zonal or west-to-east trending flow from the Plains and Pacific West Coast.

This will lead to a significant and likely long-lasting warming trend that will be with us from Christmas onwards. The Climate Prediction Center has placed virtually all of the contiguous U.S. at a moderate to high chance of warmer than normal temperatures in its Dec. 24-30 outlook.

While we will likely move into a pattern of above average temperatures around Christmas, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be sunny. In this part of the world, warm air currents are often accompanied by humidity, so we can expect more clouds and possibly some chances of rain around Christmas. If you’re lucky enough to have elevation or latitude working in your favor, you might be able to squeeze out some snow in western Pennsylvania, but things aren’t looking too good right now.

What are the chances of a white Christmas in Pittsburgh?

Statistically, the chance of having a white Christmas in Pittsburgh is about 25%, so the odds are often against there being a white Christmas – especially in the south and west of Pittsburgh. The likelihood increases further north toward Lake Erie, where lake-enhanced snow helps increase that potential, and in the Laurel Highlands, which typically receives the first winter precipitation due to its higher elevation and more frequent stays above freezing.

These are the chances for this year.