Will there be a “white Christmas” in Tahoe this year? History shows that

Will there be a white Christmas in Lake Tahoe this year?

By definition, a “white Christmas” occurs when at least one centimeter of fresh snow falls on Christmas Day.

It’s too early to make a forecast, but historical data can tell us about the likelihood of new snow over the holidays.

Climatology of the White Christmas

The National Weather Service office in Reno, Nevada, has daily climate data for Tahoe City dating back to 1909.

During this 104-year period, 22% of the years had a white Christmas.

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The snow depth plays an important role in the quotas. The elevation of Lake Tahoe is 6,225 feet. Some years the amount of snow was higher, so it rained at Lake Tahoe.

Even if there is no new snow on Christmas Day, the likelihood of snow from previous storms being on the ground is quite high. Since 1909, Tahoe City has had at least 1 inch of snow 86% of the years.

In nearly half of the last 104 years, Tahoe City has had at least 12 inches of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

What about the valley?

Unless there is an extremely unusual and unlikely weather pattern, there will be no Christmas snow in the valley.

In Sacramento and Auburn, it rains measurably on Christmas Day about every third year.

Average maximum temperatures in the valley and foothills are around 50°C. Average lows are in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The warmest Christmas in downtown Sacramento was 1967. The high temperature was 64 degrees. The coldest Christmas morning was in 1891. The temperature dropped to 26 degrees that year.

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